Semi Empirical Model of Global Warming Including Cosmic Forces, Greenhouse Gases, and Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract

In this paper, the author describes a semi empirical climate model (SECM) including the major forces which have impacts on the global warming namely Greenhouse Gases (GHG), the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), the Astronomical Harmonic Resonances (AHR), and the Volcanic Eruptions (VE). The effects of GHGs have been calculated based on the spectral analysis methods. The GHG effects cannot alone explain the temperature changes starting from the Little Ice Age (LIA). The known TSI variations have a major role in explaining the warming before 1880. There are two warming periods since 1930 and the cycling AHR effects can explain these periods of 60 year intervals. The warming mechanisms of TSI and AHR include the cloudiness changes and these quantitative effects are based on empirical temperature changes. The AHR effects depend on the TSI, because their impact mechanisms are proposed to happen through cloudiness changes and TSI amplification mechanism happen in the same way. Two major volcanic eruptions, which can be detected in the global temperature data, are included. The author has reconstructed the global temperature data from 1630 to 2015 utilizing the published temperature estimates for the period

Retracted: Two main temperature periodicities related to planetary and solar activity oscillations

“…Ollila (2017) has combined these two theories by introducing new details to the AHR. Gold (1975) has pointed out that the small particles in the solar system spiral toward the Sun, but they may become trapped in resonances with the planets.…”

“…The 60‐year fluctuations of AMO, PMO, AHR, and temperature trends. The AHR trend is from the study of Ollila (2017), and the PMO trend has been digitized from the curve of Chen et al . (2016, Fig.…”

“…The combination of these signals is calculated and depicted in Figure 7. The AHR signal is from the study of Ollila (2017) by standardizing it from −100 to +100%. The amplitude of the 88‐year Gleissberg signal has been fitted to give the same maximum and minimum amplitude values as the AHR signal by standardizing the amplitude of a sinusoidal signal of 88‐year Gleissberg from −100 to 100%.…”

Challenging the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement

“…These same forces can explain the present temperature pause. The obvious culprit is the sun, which has shown a rather strong decrease in its activity (Ollila, 2017b). If the present temperature pause continues, there is no need to rush into a strong reduction of GH gas emissions.…”

“…Looking at the historical versions of GISS data sets, this is not probable. The author's conclusion is that the best estimate for the global temperature data set is the combination of NAS and Hansen data from 1880 to 1969, the period from 1969 to 1979 covered by the GISS-2017 data set and thereafter by the UAH data set (Ollila, 2017b).…”