Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

Abstract

Abstract. Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characterisCorrespondence to: E. R. Vivoni (vivoni@asu.edu) tics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

A climate change projection for summer hydrologic conditions in a semiarid watershed of central Arizona

“…Prior studies have documented that higher evapotranspiration might not occur in semiarid regions if there is low water availability (Vivoni et al 2009) or a stomatal control by vegetation (Serrat-Capdevila et al 2011). In this work, we find that a radiation limitation can also control evapotranspiration due to higher cloud cover induced in a future climate projection with higher precipitation, in spite of more soil water and warmer temperatures.…”

The implications of geology, soils, and vegetation on landscape morphology: Inferences from semi-arid basins with complex vegetation patterns in Central New Mexico, USA

“…The URS basin is located in the Colorado Plateau physiographic region in westcentral New Mexico, 70 km west of the SNWR. The basin covers an area of 464 km 2 within an elevation range of 1985 m to 2880 m. Annual rainfall for the growing season varies between 220 mm at lower, and 325 mm at higher elevations of the URS (Caylor et al, 2005;Vivoni et al, 2009) The soil texture information is obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) STATSGO database (Soil Survey Staff, 1994). Soil textures in the URS basin include sandy loam, silt loam, and loam.…”

Groundwater recharge estimation in semi-arid zone: a study case from the region of Djelfa (Algeria)

“…According to the results given in Tables 5 and 6 and the graphic results showed in Fig. 6, we see that the variation of groundwater recharge given by the hybrid model is between 14 and 26.77 mm/year, with a standard deviation 4.24 mm, the value of recharge calculated by the model of Chibane et al varies between 4 and 26.55 mm/year with a standard deviation 6.10 mm; in addition the variation of recharge given by the hydrogeological model is between 13.56 and 22.66 mm/year with a standard deviation 4.36 mm; the two models (Hybrid and hydrogeological) have the same variation with present a best estimation of recharge in the opposite side the model of Chibane present a deficit in the estimation of recharge when the annual rainfall is less than 450 mm (Vivoni et al 2009). …”