A climate change projection for summer hydrologic conditions in a semiarid watershed of central Arizona

Hawkins, Gretchen A.; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Robles-Morúa, A.; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Rivera, Eric M.; Domínguez, Francina

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.02.022

Cited by 19 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…(4) RegCM4.3 downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model underestimated precipitation by 15% during the historical period as compared with the station data. (5) RegCM4.3 simulations were applied to SWAT without a bias correction, which has advantages [10,86] and disadvantages [87]. (6) SWAT was forced with a single RCM (RegCM4.3 forced with HadGEM2-ES) and a single emission scenario (RCP 8.5).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Montecelos-Zamora

Cavazos

Kretzschmar

et al. 2018

Water

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The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001–2006 (2007–2010) period at a monthly timescale in two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970–2000) period and near-future (2015–2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 °C in mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Montecelos-Zamora

Cavazos

Kretzschmar

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Recent developments used in this work include a method for ingesting time-variable vegetation parameter values (Vivoni, 2012) and a parallelization method based on subdomain partitioning of the channel network . In previous studies, tRIBS has shown good performance with respect to soil moisture and temperature, ET, and streamflow measurements (e.g., Hawkins et al, 2015;Mahmood & Vivoni, 2011;Méndez-Barroso et al, 2014;Pierini et al, 2014;Xiang et al, 2014).…”

Section: Model Description Including Channel Transmission Lossesmentioning

confidence: 96%

On the Sensitivity of Hillslope Runoff and Channel Transmission Losses in Arid Piedmont Slopes

Schreiner-McGraw

Vivoni

2018

Water Resources Research

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Channel transmission losses alter the streamflow response of arid and semiarid watersheds and promote focused groundwater recharge. This process has been primarily studied in dryland channels draining large areas that are displaced away from hillslope runoff generation. In contrast, small watersheds on arid piedmont slopes allow the investigation of interactive hillslope and channel processes that control the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows. In this study, we utilize high‐resolution, long‐term measurements of water balance components in an instrumented watershed of the Chihuahuan Desert to set up, parameterize, and test a process‐based, distributed hydrologic model modified to account for channel losses. A transient method for capturing capillary effects in channels results in simulations with a reliable representation of the watershed energy balance, soil moisture dynamics, hillslope infiltration, channel transmission (or percolation) losses, and streamflow yield over the study period. The simulation also reproduces a conceptual model of hillslope infiltration‐excess runoff generation linked to downstream channel percolation losses that depend on the rainfall event size. Model‐derived thresholds were obtained for the amount of hillslope runoff (6 mm) and rainfall (12.5 mm) necessary for streamflow yield, such that 40% of percolation occurs for small events that do not reach the outlet. Using a set of scenarios, we identify that hillslope infiltration controls the rainfall threshold necessary to initiate percolation, while channel infiltration affects the partitioning into percolation and streamflow yield. Thus, the connectivity along hillslope‐channel pathways is deemed an essential control on the streamflow generation and groundwater recharge in arid regions with complex terrain.

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“…2013analyzed the open-access outputs of 14 GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project to identify those exhibiting the best performance in terms of representing the intra-annual variability of precipitation and temperature in the present climate for the seven study sites of the precursor European project. For each study site, the selected set of climate model data was validated using the E-OBS dataset, a high-quality pan-European gridded observational dataset of daily precipitation and temperature (Haylock et al, 2008). The models (and their acronyms: ECH-RCA, ECH-REM, ECH-RMO, and HCH-RCA) selected for the Rio Mannu site are listed in Table 2.…”

Section: Hydrologic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

Perra

Piras

Deidda

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).

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A climate change projection for summer hydrologic conditions in a semiarid watershed of central Arizona

Cited by 19 publications

References 53 publications

Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

On the Sensitivity of Hillslope Runoff and Channel Transmission Losses in Arid Piedmont Slopes

Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

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