Sensitivity analysis of COVID-19 with quarantine and vaccination: A fractal-fractional model

Malik, Abdul; Alkholief, Musaed; Aldakheel, Fahad M.; Khan, Azmat Ali; Ahmad, Zubair; Kamal, Warda; Gatasheh, Mansour K.; Alshamsan, Aws

doi:10.1016/j.aej.2022.02.024

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Our study advances the understanding of multiple infection dynamics, building on significant previous research in disease modeling. We resonate with and expand upon the work of researchers like those cited in 13,14 , and 15 , who explored transmission dynamics and sensitivity analysis using fractal-fractional differential operators. Our methodology also draws from 16,17 , who developed fractional models for diseases such as malaria and typhoid fever, underscoring the critical role of analyzing multiple pathogens in epidemiological studies and the importance of understanding their reproduction numbers.…”

Section: Motivationmentioning

confidence: 82%

A stochastic approach for co-evolution process of virus and human immune system

Ain,

Shen,

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Infectious diseases have long been a shaping force in human history, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. This study introduces a co-evolution model that integrates both epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. Utilizing a system of differential equations, the model represents the interactions among susceptible, infected, and recovered populations for both ancestral and evolved viral strains. Methodologically rigorous, the model’s existence and uniqueness have been verified, and it accommodates both deterministic and stochastic cases. A myriad of graphical techniques have been employed to elucidate the model’s dynamics. Beyond its theoretical contributions, this model serves as a critical instrument for public health strategy, particularly predicting future outbreaks in scenarios where viral mutations compromise existing interventions.

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Section: Motivationmentioning

confidence: 82%

A stochastic approach for co-evolution process of virus and human immune system

Ain,

Shen,

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Sensitivity analysis is a tool for measuring the robustness of an epidemic model. The objective of sensitivity analysis in an epidemic model is to test the influence of different parameters to find the most critical parameters [ 60 ] or to check how the observed result changes when other model parameters are changed [ 61 ].…”

Section: Results and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review

Goswami

Labib

2022

IJERPH

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A good amount of research has evolved just in three years in COVID-19 transmission, mortality, vaccination, and some socioeconomic studies. A few bibliometric reviews have already been performed in the literature, especially on the broad theme of COVID-19, without any particular area such as transmission, mortality, or vaccination. This paper fills this gap by conducting a bibliometric review on COVID-19 transmission as the first of its kind. The main aim of this study is to conduct a bibliometric review of the literature in the area of COVID-19 transmission dynamics. We have conducted bibliometric analysis using descriptive and network analysis methods to review the literature in this area using RStudio, Openrefine, VOSviewer, and Tableau. We reviewed 1103 articles published in 2020–2022. The result identified the top authors, top disciplines, research patterns, and hotspots and gave us clear directions for classifying research topics in this area. New research areas are rapidly emerging in this area, which needs constant observation by researchers to combat this global epidemic.

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“…Since we have included time-varying IFRs to account for changing age distributions of infections, future research could make use of this flexibility and incorporate also time-varying vaccination effects into our model, as well as potentially altered intrinsic severity of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants 34 . Adjustment for vaccinations could be achieved via a general population-wise factor or age group specific parameters representing the rates of vaccinated individuals in the respective groups (see also related studies 35 – 37 for different modelling approaches of vaccination effects). Particularly in light of progressive vaccination programs in many countries, it can be expected that there will be additional changes in implemented testing regimes during the further course of the pandemic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany via spline-based hierarchical modelling of death counts

Wistuba

Mayr

Staerk

2022

Sci Rep

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We consider a retrospective modelling approach for estimating effective reproduction numbers based on death counts during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model incorporates splines to estimate reproduction numbers flexibly over time while adjusting for varying effective infection fatality rates. The approach also provides estimates of dark figures regarding undetected infections. Results for Germany illustrate that our estimates based on death counts are often similar to classical estimates based on confirmed cases; however, considering death counts allows to disentangle effects of adapted testing policies from transmission dynamics. In particular, during the second wave of infections, classical estimates suggest a flattening infection curve following the “lockdown light” in November 2020, while our results indicate that infections continued to rise until the “second lockdown” in December 2020. This observation is associated with more stringent testing criteria introduced concurrently with the “lockdown light”, which is reflected in subsequently increasing dark figures of infections estimated by our model. In light of progressive vaccinations, shifting the focus from modelling confirmed cases to reported deaths with the possibility to incorporate effective infection fatality rates might be of increasing relevance for the future surveillance of the pandemic.

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Sensitivity analysis of COVID-19 with quarantine and vaccination: A fractal-fractional model

Cited by 25 publications

References 35 publications

A stochastic approach for co-evolution process of virus and human immune system

A stochastic approach for co-evolution process of virus and human immune system

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review

Estimating the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany via spline-based hierarchical modelling of death counts

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