Sensitivity of Circulation in the Skagit River Estuary to Sea Level Rise and Future Flows

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Sackmann, Brandon; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Hamlet, Alan F.

doi:10.3955/046.090.0108

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…With predictions of higher mean sea level and lower summer freshwater flows in the future, the effects on coastal processes such as increased inundation frequency and salinity intrusion are expected in the directly exposed terrestrial‐aquatic interface regions of intertidal flats and tidal marshes (e.g., Khangaonkar et al, ). What is less understood is the magnitude of the effect on large‐scale estuarine circulation.…”

Section: Results—projected Change In Salish Sea (Y2095 Relative To Y2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Khangaonkar

Nugraha

et al. 2019

JGR Oceans

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Given annual occurrences of hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and evidence of coastal acidification, the potential impacts of climate change on water quality are of increasing concern in the U.S. Pacific Northwest estuaries such as the Salish Sea. While large‐scale global climate projections are well documented, our understanding of the nearshore estuarine‐scale response is not as well developed. In this study, the future response within the Salish Sea fjord‐like environment was examined using the Salish Sea Model driven by downscaled outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research climate model Community Earth System Model. We simulated a single projection of 95‐year change under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results indicate that higher temperatures, lower pH, and decreased dissolved oxygen levels in the upwelled shelf waters in the future would propagate into the Salish Sea. Results point to potential changes in average Salish Sea temperature (≈+1.51 °C), dissolved oxygen (≈−0.77 mg/L), and pH (acidification −0.18 units) in the Y2095 relative to historical Y2000. The algal biomass in the Salish Sea could increase by ≈23% with a potential species shift from diatoms toward dinoflagellates. The region of annually recurring hypoxia could increase from <1% today to ≈16% in the future. The results suggest that the future response in the Salish Sea is less severe relative to the change predicted near the continental shelf boundary. This resilience of the Salish Sea may be attributed to the existence of strong vertical circulation cells that provide mitigation and serve as a physical buffer, thus keeping waters cooler, more oxygenated, and less acidic.

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Section: Results—projected Change In Salish Sea (Y2095 Relative To Y2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Khangaonkar

Nugraha

et al. 2019

JGR Oceans

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“…In 2011, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a hydrodynamic model of Puget Sound known as the Salish Sea Model. This model has been used as a tool for coastal estuarine research, nearshore restoration planning [12], water-quality management [13], and assessment of climate change effects [14,15]. The Salish Sea Model is one of the most detailed hydrodynamic models for the region, carefully calibrated for circulation and tidal exchange to primarily address water quality concerns, and thus, is a reasonable choice for oil spill modeling.…”

Section: Ambient Forcing For Oil Spill Models-the Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of the 2003 Foss Barge - Point Wells Oil Spill: A Comparison between BLOSOM and GNOME Oil Spill Models

Duran

Romeo

Whiting

et al. 2018

JMSE

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The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) are compared. Increasingly complex simulations are used to assess similarities and differences between the two models’ components. The simulations presented here are forced by ocean currents from a Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) implementation that has excellent skill in representing tidal motion, and with observed wind data that compensates for a coarse vertical ocean model resolution. The comprehensive comparison between GNOME and BLOSOM presented here, should aid modelers in interpreting their results. Beyond many similarities, aspects where both models are distinct are highlighted. Some suggestions for improvement are included, e.g., the inclusion of temporal interpolation of the forcing fields (BLOSOM) or the inclusion of a deflection angle option when parameterizing wind-driven processes (GNOME). Overall, GNOME and BLOSOM perform similarly, and are found to be complementary oil spill models. This paper also sheds light on what drove the historical Point Wells spill, and serves the additional purpose of being a learning resource for those interested in oil spill modeling. The increasingly complex approach used for the comparison is also used, in parallel, to illustrate the approach an oil spill modeler would typically follow when trying to hindcast or forecast an oil spill, including detailed technical information on basic aspects, like choosing a computational time step. We discuss our successful hindcast of the 2003 Point Wells oil spill that, to our knowledge, had remained unexplained. The oil spill models’ solutions are compared to the historical Point Wells’ oil trajectory, in time and space, as determined from overflight information. Our hindcast broadly replicates the correct locations at the correct times, using accurate tide and wind forcing. While the choice of wind coefficient we use is unconventional, a simplified analytic model supported by observations, suggests that it is justified under this study’s circumstances. We highlight some of the key oceanographic findings as they may relate to other oil spills, and to the regional oceanography of the Salish Sea, including recommendations for future studies.

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Trends of sea-level rise effects on estuaries and estimates of future saline intrusion

Costa

Martins

Carvalho

et al. 2023

Ocean & Coastal Management

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Sensitivity of Circulation in the Skagit River Estuary to Sea Level Rise and Future Flows

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Simulation of the 2003 Foss Barge - Point Wells Oil Spill: A Comparison between BLOSOM and GNOME Oil Spill Models

Trends of sea-level rise effects on estuaries and estimates of future saline intrusion

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