Sensitivity of emergent sociohydrologic dynamics to internal system properties and external sociopolitical factors: Implications for water management

Abstract

It is increasingly acknowledged that effective management of water resources requires a holistic understanding of the coevolving dynamics inherent in the coupled human‐hydrology system. One of the fundamental information gaps concerns the sensitivity of coupled system feedbacks to various endogenous system properties and exogenous societal contexts. This paper takes a previously calibrated sociohydrology model and applies an idealized implementation, in order to: (i) explore the sensitivity of emergent dynamics resulting from bidirectional feedbacks to assumptions regarding (a) internal system properties that control the internal dynamics of the coupled system and (b) the external sociopolitical context; and (ii) interpret the results within the context of water resource management decision making. The analysis investigates feedback behavior in three ways, (a) via a global sensitivity analysis on key parameters and assessment of relevant model outputs, (b) through a comparative analysis based on hypothetical placement of the catchment along various points on the international sociopolitical gradient, and (c) by assessing the effects of various direct management intervention scenarios. Results indicate the presence of optimum windows that might offer the greatest positive impact per unit of management effort. Results further advocate management tools that encourage an adaptive learning, community‐based approach with respect to water management, which are found to enhance centralized policy measures. This paper demonstrates that it is possible to use a place‐based sociohydrology model to make abstractions as to the dynamics of bidirectional feedback behavior, and provide insights as to the efficacy of water management tools under different circumstances.

System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles

“…This was due to their influence on feedback processes responding to input parameter perturbations [75]. Their results correspond well with other types of system analysis efforts in the field of socio-hydrology [82].…”

“…This was due to their influence on feedback processes responding to input parameter perturbations [75]. Their results correspond well with other types of system analysis efforts in the field of socio-hydrology [82]. Water resource analysis case 2 Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran: The Zayandeh-Rud River Basin has traditionally used a supply-chain oriented approach to deal with water stress in the past 60 years [72].…”

Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

“…Interdisciplinary systems approaches [3,15,16] have focused on identifying qualitative connections between hydrology, ecology, community, and economics or quantifying and modeling only one or two of these components. More importantly, this work complements major advances in the field of sociohydrology [17][18][19][20][21], where six key components (hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response) have been proposed and developed [16], adopted and extended to more specific application [18][19][20], and refined and generalized [20]. Results from such work have provided better understanding of the coupled nature between local societies and their hydrologic context, particularly the governing role of community sensitivity to maintaining hydrologic and ecosystem health and functions through an adaptive management process [17][18][19][20].…”

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

“…Once defined, regional curves may be used to interpolate parameters and hence models to ungauged locations. Initial efforts have already been made in Elshafei et al (2016), but these need to be improved and validated through more independent comparative studies. Yet another possibility could be investigation of a Budyko-type curve for coupled human-water systems with endogenous values and norms that will enable extrapolation of emergent behaviors in space and time.…”

“…Water is at the core of many of the sustainability challenges that human societies face (Bai et al, 2016;Falkenmark and Rockström, 2004;Rijsberman, 2006). Sustainable water resource management is key to production of food and energy to satisfy human needs, including poverty alleviation and human health.…”