Sensitivity of fishery resources to climate change in the warm-temperate Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Abstract

Climate change impacts on fishery resources have been widely reported worldwide. Nevertheless, a knowledge gap remains for the warm-temperate Southwest Atlantic Ocean—a global warming hotspot that sustains important industrial and small-scale fisheries. By combining a trait-based framework and long-term landing records, we assessed species’ sensitivity to climate change and potential changes in the distribution of important fishery resources (n = 28; i.e., bony fishes, chondrichthyans, crustaceans, and mollusks) in Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and the northern shelf of Argentina. Most species showed moderate or high sensitivity, with mollusks (e.g., sedentary bivalves and snails) being the group with the highest sensitivity, followed by chondrichthyans. Bony fishes showed low and moderate sensitivities, while crustacean sensitivities were species-specific. The stock and/or conservation status overall contributed the most to higher sensitivity. Between 1989 and 2019, species with low and moderate sensitivity dominated regional landings, regardless of the jurisdiction analyzed. A considerable fraction of these landings consisted of species scoring high or very high on an indicator for potential to change their current distribution. These results suggest that although the bulk of past landings were from relatively climate-resilient species, future catches and even entire benthic fisheries may be jeopardized because (1) some exploited species showed high or very high sensitivities and (2) the increase in the relative representation of landings in species whose distribution may change. This paper provides novel results and insights relevant for fisheries management from a region where the effects of climate change have been overlooked, and which lacks a coordinated governance system for climate-resilient fisheries.

Social–ecological vulnerability and risk of China’s marine capture fisheries to climate change

“…2 ). This finding aligns with results from other major fishing areas, such as India, Portugal, and Southwest Atlantic Ocean, where the fishing industries are sustained by resilient species with high recovery potential or low sensitivity ( 37 – 39 ).…”

Southernmost record of Coryphaena hippurus Linnaeus, 1758 (Coryphaenidae) in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, off Mar del Plata, Argentina

“…This trend is likely attributable to regional tropicalization, where tropical and subtropical environmental conditions are increasingly observed in areas previously characterized by temperate conditions (Cheung et al 2012, Milessi et al 2015. These individual observations play a crucial role in establishing and acknowledging a phenomenon that has been extensively documented in oceanographic studies and in the fields of ecology and biology (Bertrand et al 2019, Gianelli et al 2023).…”

Poleward catch displacement of blackfin tuna Thunnus atlanticus in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean: Possible effect of increasing water temperatures

“…Distribution shifts of marine fish are related to climate change worldwide (Cheung et al., 2013; Last et al., 2011). In the southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWAO), ocean warming is presumably responsible for a poleward shift of several essential fish stocks (Franco et al., 2020; Gianelli et al., 2023; Perez & Sant'Ana, 2022), increased sensitivity of commercially critical species (Gianelli et al., 2023), and long‐term replacement from cold‐water to warm‐water species in industrial fisheries of Uruguay (Gianelli et al., 2019). Evidence suggests that the Brazil Current is intensifying and shifting southwards, thereby causing intense ocean warming along its path, the South Brazil Bight, and in the Río de la Plata (Franco et al., 2020).…”