Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t sWe investigate the potential impacts of global change on wildfire frequencies.We account for changing fire meteorology, lightning, population, land use/land cover. Fire frequencies are projected to increase by~27% due to 2000e2050 global change. Fire meteorology change is the most important factor, followed by land cover. a b s t r a c tThe occurrence of wildfires is very sensitive to fire meteorology, vegetation type and coverage. We investigate the potential impacts of global change (including changes in climate, land use/land cover, and population density) on wildfire frequencies over the period of 2000e2050. We account for the impacts associated with the changes in fire meteorology (such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity), vegetation density, as well as lightning and anthropogenic ignitions. Fire frequencies under the 2050 conditions are projected to increase by approximately 27% globally relative to the 2000 levels. Significant increases in fire occurrence are calculated over the Amazon area, Australia and Central Russia, while Southeast Africa shows a large decreasing trend due to significant increases in land use and population. Changes in fire meteorology driven by 2000e2050 climate change are found to increase the global annual total fires by around 19%. Modest increases (~4%) in fire frequency at tropical regions are calculated in response to climate-driven changes in lightning activities, relative to the present-day levels. Changes in land cover by 2050 driven by climate change and increasing CO 2 fertilization are expected to increase the global wildfire occurrences by 15% relative to the 2000 conditions while the 2000e2050 anthropogenic land use changes show little effects on global wildfire frequency. The 2000e2050 changes in global population are projected to reduce the total wildfires by about 7%. In general, changes in future fire meteorology plays the most important role in enhancing the future global wildfires, followed by land cover, lightning activities and land use while changes in population density exhibits the opposite effects during the period of 2000e2050.

Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico

“…This result contrasts with other studies that found stronger influences of climate than LULC on fire occurrence when using remote sensors [17,22,50]. An open question remains how different resolution fire data are explained by variables operating at different scales.…”

“…Fire occurrence and spread is also controlled by local factors such as ignition source, topography, local weather patterns, variations in fuels type and condition, and management actions [6,7,9,[11][12][13][14][15]. Because of the complex interplay among drivers of wildfires, predicting fire occurrence in the context of global change is a challenge [16][17][18].…”

Fire-Induced Changes in Soil and Implications on Soil Sorption Capacity and Remediation Methods

“…Fire events are becoming more frequent in occurrence, and larger in terms of areal coverage [1]. Analyses of charcoal records in sediments and isotopic records in ice cores have indicated lower biomass burning in present times than any time in the previous 2000 years [2,3], but Huang et al [1] and North et al [4] reported an increase in the occurrence of wildfires. Data from Europe, Australia, and New Zealand also show a decline in the occurrence of fire events but similar data sets from South East Asia, the Middle East and North America show an increase [5].…”

“…Results from studies carried out around the globe indicate that spatially, fire incidents occur in every continent except Antarctica whereas temporal occurrence is related to climatic changes [6]. According to Huang et al [1], lightning, climate change and precipitation will account for 3.6%, 19%, and 36.7% increase in the occurrence of wildfires respectively by the year 2050. Lightning, volcanic eruptions, and sparks from rock falls are natural occurrences which have been cited as being responsible for wildfires.…”

Assessing Lightning and Wildfire Hazard by Land Properties and Cloud to Ground Lightning Data with Association Rule Mining in Alberta, Canada

“…About 9 to 10 lightning-related deaths and 19 to 164 injuries occur each year in Canada, costing between $3.6 and $79.2 million [ 1 ]. The lightning activity is a major natural ignition source for global wildfires and was parameterized as a driving factor to generate simulated wildfire model [ 2 , 3 ]. There is an average of 816 fires ignited by lightning each year.…”