Sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations

Sandvik, Mari Ingeborg; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Rasmussen, Roy

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3593-1

Cited by 29 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…This implies a decrease of about 19–24% in snow accumulation at both basin and domain levels per Kelvin increase in lower tropospheric temperature. These values are consistent with the findings of Sandvik et al () who analyzed the sensitivity of extreme orographically enhanced precipitation to idealized temperature perturbations over the west coast of Norway. Critically, flooding in the basin can be exacerbated by more precipitation falling in the liquid rather than solid phase.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

et al. 2018

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The semiarid Salt and Verde River Basins in Arizona are susceptible to atmospheric river (AR)‐related flooding. To understand the precipitation‐related impacts of climate change on extreme ARs affecting Arizona, a pseudo‐global warming method was used. High‐resolution control and future simulations of five intense historical AR events that affected the Salt and Verde River Basins in Central Arizona were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model. The pseudo‐global warming approach for future simulations involved adding a temperature delta at different vertical levels to the historical initial and lateral boundary conditions of the input data while keeping constant relative humidity. The deltas were calculated using projected changes toward end of the 21st century from an ensemble of nine Global Climate Models for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Future simulations showed an overall increase in vertically integrated transport of vapor and upward moisture flux at cloud base over the region for all events. The changes in precipitation at both domain and basin levels were highly spatially heterogeneous. Precipitation increased in all future simulations; but in general, this increase remained less than the increase in column‐integrated water vapor. It was found that in most cases, cloud ice content decreased while cloud water content increased, indicating the increased role of warm‐rain processes in producing precipitation in the future simulations. Freezing levels rose by more than 600 m, and this along with increased temperature and greater role of warm‐rain processes led to a decrease of more than 80% in the amount of frozen precipitation during the events.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

et al. 2018

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“…This process shifts the spatial pattern of precipitation downwind and drives a sub-Clausius-Clapeyron increase (an increase of 9.3% compared with non-orographic precipitation at 13.1%) in the total precipitation across the mountain. While regional-climate-model simulations provide some evidence of these thermodynamic effects 94,95 , other changes, such as mountain-wave dynamics 96 and hydrometeor growth and fallout 63,97,98 , are also thought to influence AR-precipitation responses. This complexity points to the need for further analysis of the mechanisms governing orographic precipitation and its response to climate change -an effort that will be substantially aided by greater availability of high-resolution simulations 99 (Box 2).…”

Section: Dynamical Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Payne

Demory

Leung

et al. 2020

Nat Rev Earth Environ

260

240

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are synoptic-scale features characterized by their striking geometry-extending thousands of kilometres in length and an order of magni tude less in width 1-and vertically coherent low-level moisture transport concentrated in the bottom 3 km of the atmosphere 2 (Fig. 1). In total, ARs are estimated to accomplish as much as 90% of poleward moisture transport 3,4 , which, in the North Pacific, averages 700 kg m −1 s −1 (Fig. 1b), more than twice the mean annual discharge found at the mouth of the Amazon River 5. ARs do not describe continuous moisture transport. Rather, they are continually evolving pathways that incorporate moisture from local convergence and evaporation along their track 6,7 or, in select cases, from distant source regions in the tropics or subtropics 8-12. Owing to the complexity of their evolution, our baseline knowledge of AR characteristics at the global scale is uncertain due to the dependency on identification algorithms (Box 1), with factors such as genesis, development and termination only recently being explored 13,14. However, ARs are known to operate as one part of a larger, synoptic-scale dynamical system driving the poleward transport of sensible and latent heat 4,15. They are generally found in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones. Over the North Pacific, for example, 85% of ARs are paired with extratropical cyclones 16 , consistent with their observed relationship with baroclinic instabilities and the mid-latitude storm track 3,6. However, this relationship is nuanced; only 45% of extratropical cyclones over the same region are associated with an AR 16. Similar non-linear relationships are observed in the North Atlantic, where the evolution and life cycle of a single AR can span that of several cyclones 9. While the phenomena are clearly related, their relationship is interactive, with potential implications on the inten sification of storms and the severity of precipitation impacts on land 17,18. Indeed, given their intense moisture transport and moist-neutrality, ARs exhibit conditions that are ideal for forced precipitation, either through interaction with topography or ascent along a warm conveyor belt or frontal boundary 19. Thus, when ARs make landfall, they can have a range of hydrological impacts, including precipitation extremes and related hazards,

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“…There are several previous published studies that have estimated DR over various mountain regions (Kirshbaum & Smith, ; Sandvik et al, ; Shi & Durran, ; B. L. Smith et al, ; R. B. Smith et al, , ; R. B. Smith & Evans, ). The results from these studies are summarized in Table .…”

Section: Drying Ratio As a Function Of The Barrier Shapementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results from these studies are summarized in Table . The previous published DR studies cover a range of mountain shapes and sizes, including the mountain ranges on the U.S. West Coast, the Andes, Southern Norway, and the European Alps, and the analysis approaches are ranging from idealized modeling (Kirshbaum & Smith, ; Shi & Durran, ), to real‐case modeling (Sandvik et al, ; R. B. Smith et al, ; B. L. Smith et al, ) to using observations (R. B. Smith et al, ; R. B. Smith & Evans, ).…”

Section: Drying Ratio As a Function Of The Barrier Shapementioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

et al. 2018

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Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K−1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K−1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K−1.

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Sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations

Abstract: of around 23%/K. This change may have serious implications for flooding and geohazards.

Cited by 29 publications

References 34 publications

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

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