Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes.However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25 • in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs).Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability.The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.
Abstract. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. We also present results from our 1-month “proof-of-concept” trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project.
This study provides an overview of the coupled high‐resolution Version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents the characteristics of a 50‐year‐long high‐resolution control simulation with time‐invariant 1950 forcings following the HighResMIP protocol. In terms of global root‐mean‐squared error metrics, this high‐resolution simulation is generally superior to results from the low‐resolution configuration of E3SMv1 (due to resolution, tuning changes, and possibly initialization procedure) and compares favorably to models in the CMIP5 ensemble. Ocean and sea ice simulation is particularly improved, due to better resolution of bathymetry, the ability to capture more variability and extremes in winds and currents, and the ability to resolve mesoscale ocean eddies. The largest improvement in this regard is an ice‐free Labrador Sea, which is a major problem at low resolution. Interestingly, several features found to improve with resolution in previous studies are insensitive to resolution or even degrade in E3SMv1. Most notable in this regard are warm bias and associated stratocumulus deficiency in eastern subtropical oceans and lack of improvement in El Niño. Another major finding of this study is that resolution increase had negligible impact on climate sensitivity (measured by net feedback determined through uniform +4K prescribed sea surface temperature increase) and aerosol sensitivity. Cloud response to resolution increase consisted of very minor decrease at all levels. Large‐scale patterns of precipitation bias were also relatively unaffected by grid spacing.
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high‐impact weather events and long‐term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify and track of ARs—a necessary step for analyses on gridded data sets, and objective attribution of impacts to ARs. These different methods have been developed to answer specific research questions and hence use different criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values of key variables, and time dependence). Furthermore, these methods are often employed using different reanalysis data sets, time periods, and regions of interest. The goal of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is to understand and quantify uncertainties in AR science that arise due to differences in these methods. This paper presents results for key AR‐related metrics based on 20+ different AR identification and tracking methods applied to Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data from January 1980 through June 2017. We show that AR frequency, duration, and seasonality exhibit a wide range of results, while the meridional distribution of these metrics along selected coastal (but not interior) transects are quite similar across methods. Furthermore, methods are grouped into criteria‐based clusters, within which the range of results is reduced. AR case studies and an evaluation of individual method deviation from an all‐method mean highlight advantages/disadvantages of certain approaches. For example, methods with less (more) restrictive criteria identify more (less) ARs and AR‐related impacts. Finally, this paper concludes with a discussion and recommendations for those conducting AR‐related research to consider.
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are synoptic-scale features characterized by their striking geometry-extending thousands of kilometres in length and an order of magni tude less in width 1-and vertically coherent low-level moisture transport concentrated in the bottom 3 km of the atmosphere 2 (Fig. 1). In total, ARs are estimated to accomplish as much as 90% of poleward moisture transport 3,4 , which, in the North Pacific, averages 700 kg m −1 s −1 (Fig. 1b), more than twice the mean annual discharge found at the mouth of the Amazon River 5. ARs do not describe continuous moisture transport. Rather, they are continually evolving pathways that incorporate moisture from local convergence and evaporation along their track 6,7 or, in select cases, from distant source regions in the tropics or subtropics 8-12. Owing to the complexity of their evolution, our baseline knowledge of AR characteristics at the global scale is uncertain due to the dependency on identification algorithms (Box 1), with factors such as genesis, development and termination only recently being explored 13,14. However, ARs are known to operate as one part of a larger, synoptic-scale dynamical system driving the poleward transport of sensible and latent heat 4,15. They are generally found in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones. Over the North Pacific, for example, 85% of ARs are paired with extratropical cyclones 16 , consistent with their observed relationship with baroclinic instabilities and the mid-latitude storm track 3,6. However, this relationship is nuanced; only 45% of extratropical cyclones over the same region are associated with an AR 16. Similar non-linear relationships are observed in the North Atlantic, where the evolution and life cycle of a single AR can span that of several cyclones 9. While the phenomena are clearly related, their relationship is interactive, with potential implications on the inten sification of storms and the severity of precipitation impacts on land 17,18. Indeed, given their intense moisture transport and moist-neutrality, ARs exhibit conditions that are ideal for forced precipitation, either through interaction with topography or ascent along a warm conveyor belt or frontal boundary 19. Thus, when ARs make landfall, they can have a range of hydrological impacts, including precipitation extremes and related hazards,
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