Sensitivity of hurricane forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in the HWRF model

Biswas, Mrinal K.; Bernardet, Ligia; Dudhia, Jimy

doi:10.1002/2014gl062071

Cited by 32 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is worth mentioning that there have been several studies on the representation of track and intensity of TCs using the high-resolution Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) [Gopalakrishnan et al, 2012[Gopalakrishnan et al, , 2013Biswas et al, 2014;Zhang and Marks, 2015], including TC rapid intensification [Kieu et al, 2014;Chen and Gopalakrishnan, 2015]. Other factors related to the improvement of the representation of the intensity of TCs include: spatial resolution and initialization [Gopalakrishnan et al, 2012], the choice of physical parameterizations [Ma and Tan, 2009;Gopalakrishnan et al, 2012;Biswas et al, 2014], vertical diffusivity of both momentum and heat [Gopalakrishnan et al, 2013], and horizontal diffusion [Zhang and Marks, 2015].…”

Section: Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems 101002/2016msmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other factors related to the improvement of the representation of the intensity of TCs include: spatial resolution and initialization [Gopalakrishnan et al, 2012], the choice of physical parameterizations [Ma and Tan, 2009;Gopalakrishnan et al, 2012;Biswas et al, 2014], vertical diffusivity of both momentum and heat [Gopalakrishnan et al, 2013], and horizontal diffusion [Zhang and Marks, 2015].…”

Section: Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems 101002/2016msmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The heated condensation framework as a convective trigger in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Bombardi

Tawfik

Manganello

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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An updated version of the Heated Condensation Framework (HCF) is implemented as a convective triggering criterion into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The new trigger replaces the original criteria in both the deep (Simplified Arakawa‐Schubert – SAS) and shallow (SAS based) convective schemes. The performance of the original and new triggering criteria is first compared against radiosonde observations. Then, a series of hindcasts are performed to evaluate the influence of the triggering criterion in the CFSv2 representation of summer precipitation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and hurricanes that made landfall. The observational analysis shows that the HCF trigger better captures the frequency of convection, where the original SAS trigger initiates convection too often. When implemented in CFSv2, the HCF trigger improves the seasonal forecast of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, including the representation of the onset dates of the rainy season over India. On the other hand, the HCF trigger increases error in the seasonal forecast of precipitation over the eastern United States. The HCF trigger also improves the representation of the intensity of hurricanes. Moreover, the simulation of hurricanes provides insights on the mechanism whereby the HCF trigger impacts the representation of convection.

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Section: Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems 101002/2016msmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems 101002/2016msmentioning

confidence: 99%

The heated condensation framework as a convective trigger in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Bombardi

Tawfik

Manganello

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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“…A control configuration adopting the HWRF Simplified Arakawa Scheme (SAS) was compared with the Kain-Fritsch and Tiedtke schemes, as well as with newer implementation of the SAS. Averaging over almost 250 cases, they showed that the SAS scheme produced the best track forecasts ( Figure 1 of [5]) till a lead time of 72-84 hours followed very closely by KainFritsch scheme.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies [3][4][5][6] have explored the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictive ability sensitivity to its different physical parameterizations, that is, to the effects of varying the computational horizontal and vertical resolutions and the number of domains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notably Biswas et al [5] explored the sensitivity of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts to different convective schemes by using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system. The HWRF configuration similar to the 2012 operational system was used in this study: the parent, middle, and the inner domains have 27, 9, and 3 km horizontal grid spacing, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Marras

Fiori

Rossi

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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The cumulus parameterization is widely recognised as a crucial factor in tropical meteorology: this paper intends to shed further light on the effects of convection parameterization on tropical cyclones’ numerical predictions in the “grey zone” (10–1 km grid spacing). Ten experiments are devised by combining five different convection treatments over the innermost, 5 km grid spacing, domain, and two different global circulation model datasets (IFS and ERA-Interim). All ten experiments are finally analysed and compared to observations provided by the National Hurricane Center’s best track record and multisatellite rainfall measurements. Results manifestly point to the superiority of employing no convective parameterization at the scale of 5 km versus the usage of any of those provided by WRF to reproduce the case study of Hurricane Tomas, which hit the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles in late October and early November 2010.

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Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST‐induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

Bhattacharya

Bordoni

Teixeira

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (∼7% K−1) predicted by the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub‐CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid‐scale precipitation, unlike those in convective‐scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large‐scale and convective‐scale motions.

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Sensitivity of hurricane forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in the HWRF model

Cited by 32 publications

References 25 publications

The heated condensation framework as a convective trigger in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

The heated condensation framework as a convective trigger in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Effects of the Representation of Convection on the Modelling of Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST‐induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

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