Sensitivity of Total Column Ozone to Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Strategies

Tilmes, Simone; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Glanville, Anne A.; Visioni, Daniele; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Müller, Rolf

doi:10.1029/2021gl094058

Cited by 17 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…3 and 4 . These include, for example, areas of key concern, such as risks of Antarctic melting contribution to sea-level rise, Arctic sea-ice loss, or permafrost thaw, along with issues where SRM might exacerbate or overcompensate climate changes ( 21 ) or create novel ones, such as increased acid-rain deposition ( 63 ) or ozone loss from sulfate SAI ( 64 ); ref. 24 already illustrates some trade-offs with different temperature targets.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification

MacMartin

Visioni

Kravitz

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Making informed future decisions about solar radiation modification (SRM; also known as solar geoengineering)—approaches such as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that would cool the climate by reflecting sunlight—requires projections of the climate response and associated human and ecosystem impacts. These projections, in turn, will rely on simulations with global climate models. As with climate-change projections, these simulations need to adequately span a range of possible futures, describing different choices, such as start date and temperature target, as well as risks, such as termination or interruptions. SRM modeling simulations to date typically consider only a single scenario, often with some unrealistic or arbitrarily chosen elements (such as starting deployment in 2020), and have often been chosen based on scientific rather than policy-relevant considerations (e.g., choosing quite substantial cooling specifically to achieve a bigger response). This limits the ability to compare risks both between SRM and non-SRM scenarios and between different SRM scenarios. To address this gap, we begin by outlining some general considerations on scenario design for SRM. We then describe a specific set of scenarios to capture a range of possible policy choices and uncertainties and present corresponding SAI simulations intended for broad community use.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification

MacMartin

Visioni

Kravitz

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…the injection of sulfur dioxide between 10 • N and 10 • S and between 18 and 20 km altitude. Similar SAI simulations have been proposed by the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS; Tilmes et al, 2018) project. GeoMIP G6 also performed experiments of future climate simulations considering the reduction in the total incoming solar irradiance (G6solar; Visioni et al, 2021), and examining differences between G6sulfur and G6solar helps us understand the role of aerosol-climate interaction and, in particular, the impacts that aerosol-induced stratospheric heating may have on atmospheric dynamics under SAI and the uncertainties in its simulation using GCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Among the concerns regarding SAI deployment are impacts on Antarctic ozone recovery (e.g. Tilmes et al, 2008;Heckendorn et al, 2009), the termination effect (e.g. Jones et al, 2013), continued ocean acidification (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention

Liang

Haywood

2023

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are closely associated with historical extreme precipitation events over East Asia. The projected increase in such weather systems under global warming has been extensively discussed in previous studies, while the role of stratospheric aerosol, particularly for the implementation of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), in such a change remains unknown. Based on an ensemble of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations, here we investigate changes in the frequency of ARs and their associated mean and extreme precipitation under a range of climate forcing, including greenhouse gas emission scenarios of high (SSP5–8.5) and medium (SSP2–4.5) levels, the deployment of SAI geoengineering (G6sulfur), and solar dimming (G6solar). The result indicates a significant increase in AR frequency and AR-related precipitation over most of East Asia in a warmer climate, and the most pronounced changes are observed in southern China. Comparing G6solar and both the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, the G6sulfur simulations indicate that SAI is effective at partly ameliorating the increases in AR activity over the subtropical region; however, it may result in more pronounced increases in ARs and associated precipitation over the upper-midlatitude regions, particularly northeastern China. Such a response is associated with the further weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream under SAI that favours the upper-midlatitude AR activity. This is driven by the decreased meridional gradient of thermal expansion in the mid–high troposphere associated with aerosol cooling across the tropical region, though SAI effectively ameliorates the widespread increase in thermal expansion under climate warming. Such a side effect of SAI over the populated region implies that caution must be taken when considering geoengineering approaches to mitigating hydrological risk under climate change.

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“…Clearly, geoengineering would have a lot of unintended side-effects; one important example is that an intentional injection of sulfur into the stratosphere might enhance stratospheric ozone depletion in general and lead to a slower recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in particular (e.g. Tilmes et al 2021). Indeed, the upcoming (2022) WMO scientific assessment of ozone depletion will contain for the first time a chapter on the question of the impact of stratospheric sulfur injections on the stratospheric ozone layer.…”

Section: Geoengineeringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paul Jozef Crutzen. 3 December 1933—28 January 2021

Müller

2022

Biogr. Mems Fell. R. Soc.

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Paul J. Crutzen was both a warm-hearted person and a brilliant scientist. His research interests were broad, encompassing topics of relevance in the mesosphere, the stratosphere and the troposphere. He made fundamental scientific contributions to a wide range of topics in the science of all these atmospheric regions. For example, he first described the NO x -driven ozone loss cycle in the stratosphere, he contributed key ideas on how to explain the ‘ozone hole’ and he made fundamental discoveries on the impact of biomass-burning on the atmosphere. Understanding and combating the origins of air pollution and climate change were driving motivations for his life's work. Further, he pioneered the concept that is known as ‘nuclear winter’, he initiated the resumption of discussion on geoengineering, and coined the term ‘Anthropocene’. In 1995, together with Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland (ForMemRS 2004), Paul was awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry for ground-breaking work ‘in atmospheric chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of ozone’. With all this focus on science, he did not forget the importance of private life, regarding both his family and his colleagues and students. Finally, Paul's work had a profound influence not only on the scientific world, but also on different aspects of environmental politics throughout many countries. His works on the impact of human activities on the atmosphere and climate have been influential in the past and are influential today. They provide a beacon of knowledge for the next generations of scientists and environmental policymakers.

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Sensitivity of Total Column Ozone to Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Strategies

Cited by 17 publications

References 29 publications

Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification

Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification

Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention

Paul Jozef Crutzen. 3 December 1933—28 January 2021

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