Separating emission and meteorological contribution to PM<sub>2.5</sub> trends over East China during 2000–2018

Abstract

Abstract. The contribution of meteorology and emissions to long-term PM2.5 trends is critical for air quality management but has not yet been fully analyzed. Here, we used a combination of machine learning model, statistical model and chemical transport model to quantify the meteorological impacts on PM2.5 pollution during 2000–2018. Specifically, we first developed a two-stage machine learning PM2.5 prediction model with a synthetic minority oversampling technique to improve the satellite-based PM2.5 estimates over highly polluted days, thus allowing us to better characterize the meteorological effects on haze events. Then we used two methods, a generalized additive model (GAM) driven by the satellite-based full-coverage daily PM2.5 retrievals as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) modelling system, to examine the meteorological contribution to PM2.5. We found good agreements between the GAM model estimations and the CMAQ model estimations of meteorological contribution to PM2.5 on monthly scale (correlation coefficient between 0.53–0.72). Both methods revealed the dominant role of emission changes in the long-term trend of PM2.5 concentration in China during 2000–2018, with notable influence from the meteorological condition. The interannual trends in meteorology-associate PM2.5 were dominated by the fall and winter meteorological conditions, when regional stagnant and stable conditions were more likely to happen and haze events frequently occurred. From 2000 to 2018, the meteorological contribution became more unfavorable to PM2.5 pollution control across the North China Plain and central China, but were more beneficial to pollution control across the southern part, e.g., the Yangtze River Delta. The meteorology-adjusted PM2.5 over East China peaked at 2006 and 2011, mainly driven by the emission peaks in PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors in these years. Although emissions dominated the long-term PM2.5 trends, the meteorology-driven anomalies also contributed −3.9 % to 2.8 % of the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in East China estimated from the GAM model. The meteorological contributions were even higher regionally, e.g., −6.3 % to 4.9 % of the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, −5.1 % to 4.3 % in the Fen-wei Plain, −4.8 % to 4.3 % in the Yangtze River Delta and −25.6 % to 12.3 % in the Pearl River Delta. Considering the remarkable meteorological effects on PM2.5 and the worsening meteorological conditions in the northern part of China where air pollution was severe and population was clustered, stricter clean air actions are needed to avoid haze events in the future.

Tracking Air Pollution in China: Near Real-Time PM2.5 Retrievals from Multisource Data Fusion

“…A two-stage machine learning model coupled with the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) developed in our previous study 46 is used to generate the TAP PM2.5 data, as presented in Figure 1. In the first stage, we define a high-pollution indicator to improve the PM2.5 estimations on highly polluted days, which are usually underestimated in statistical and machine learning models 23,28 .…”