Shedding light on the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in the Mediterranean basin

Bosso, Luciano; Febbraro, Mirko Di; Cristinzio, Gennaro; Zoina, A.; Russo, Danilo

doi:10.1007/s10530-016-1118-1

Cited by 130 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Nodes with limited spreading influence are predominantly in the northeast of Puglia, where orchards are sparser and less connected to the rest of the network. Coincidentally, climatic conditions in this area might also be less favourable for the disease 18–20 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Network analysis reveals why Xylella fastidiosa will persist in Europe

Strona

Carstens

Beck

2017

Sci Rep

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The insect vector borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first detected in olive trees in Southern Italy in 2013, and identified as the main culprit behind the ‘olive quick decline syndrome’. Since then, the disease has spread rapidly through Italy’s main olive oil producing region. The epidemiology of the outbreak is largely unstudied, with the list of X. fastidiosa hosts and vectors in Europe likely incomplete, and the role humans play in dispersal unknown. These knowledge gaps have led to management strategies based on general assumptions that require, among others, local vector control and, in certain areas, the destruction of infected plants and healthy ones around them in an attempt to eradicate or halt the spreading pest. Here we show that, regardless of epidemiological uncertainties, the mere distribution of olive orchards in Southern Italy makes the chances of eradicating X. fastidiosa from the region extremely slim. Our results imply that Southern Italy is becoming a reservoir for X. fastidiosa. As a consequence, management strategies should keep the prevalence of X. fastidiosa in the region as low as possible, primarily through vector control, lest the pathogen, that has also been detected in southern France and the island of Mallorca (Spain), continues spreading through Italy and Europe.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Network analysis reveals why Xylella fastidiosa will persist in Europe

Strona

Carstens

Beck

2017

Sci Rep

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“…The suitable and unsuitable habitats or binary presence/absence maps for the two invasive species were defined by a 10th percentile training presence logistic threshold. This threshold has been widely applied in species distribution modeling, especially when data were collected by different collectors . In order to explain the reasonable simulated results of two invasive species, the potential distribution map was reclassified into four levels: < threshold, unsuitable habitat (no risk); threshold‐0.4, low habitat suitability (low risk); 0.4–0.6, moderate habitat suitability (medium risk); and 0.6–1, high habitat suitability (high risk).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This threshold has been widely applied in species distribution modeling, especially when data were collected by different collectors. 55 In order to explain the reasonable simulated results of two invasive species, the potential distribution map was reclassified into four levels: < threshold, unsuitable habitat (no risk); threshold-0.4, low habitat suitability (low risk); 0.4-0.6, moderate habitat suitability (medium risk); and 0.6-1, high habitat suitability (high risk). Finally, 10-fold cross-validation was used to run MaxEnt to prevent random errors from predicted samples.…”

Section: Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change

Wei

Peng

et al. 2019

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND The number of global invasive species has significantly increased during the past two centuries due to globalization. The understanding of species invasion under climate change is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation, community dynamics, ecosystem function, and resource distribution. Two invasive species, Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and D. neobrevipes (Beardsley) have greatly expanded their ranges during recent years. These insects are now considered as extremely serious pests for various plants, especially pineapple. In addition, they are the primary vectors for pineapple wilt associated virus. However, the potential distribution range and management strategies for these pests are unclear. RESULTS In this study, potential risk maps were developed for these pests with MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under different environmental variables. The potential distributions of these pests were projected for 2050s and 2070s under three climate change scenarios as described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results showed that both pests have similar potential distributions, with high environmental suitability in South America, Africa and South Asia. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different climate change scenarios. The annual mean temperature was the most important factor, accounting for 43.4% of D. brevipes distribution. The minimum temperature of coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter was found to be responsible for 90.3% of D. neobrevipes distribution. CONCLUSION This research provided a theoretical reference framework to develop policies in the management and control of these invasive pests. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry

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“…X. fastidiosa is a devastating factor for oil production in an Italian region (Apulia) in which it represents a major agricultural activity and income. Moreover, this economic threat could interest the whole Mediterranean area [5,6], in which the olive tree is among the predominant cultivated species. However, X. fastidiosa is not only a production-related menace, as is the case with P. infestans or many other pathogens.…”

Section: Olive Quick Decline Syndrome An Agroecosystem Threatmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…multiplex and fastidiosa to olive at low efficiency [14]. Predictive models of X. fastidiosa distribution in the Mediterranean basin were also proposed, suggesting that the pest may spread up to Central Italy [5] and overcome the current boundaries outside Italy [6].…”

Section: Disease Monitoring and Widespread Distribution Of Pathogensmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Management of Plant Quarantine Pests: The Case of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome

Luvisi

Nicolì

Bellis³

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:The disease outbreak of Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca strain CoDiRO (Complesso del Disseccamento Rapido dell'Olivo) in Salento (Apulia, South Italy) associated with severe cases of olive quick decline syndrome may represent not just a new disease paradigm, but a challenge for policy formulation and science communication in plant pathology. Plant health management can be achieved by applying a technocratic model, in which objective science is thought to directly inform policy-making, or via decisionistic or inclusive models, in which scientific considerations drive risk assessment. Each could be applied to X. fastidiosa and CoDiRO strain management, thanks to consistent literature related to pathogen/host interactions, hosts, vectors, and diagnostic tools, reviewed here. However, consensus among stakeholders seems to be necessary in order to avoid plant health management failures or gridlocks, due to environmental, economic, and social implications in the X. fastidiosa threat. Here we discuss the role of consensus in building scientific opinion, reporting different approaches of governance after severe disease outbreaks in Europe. These case studies, and the available risk analysis for Xylella strains, should drive policy formulations towards more cooperative networks.

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Shedding light on the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in the Mediterranean basin

Cited by 130 publications

References 27 publications

Network analysis reveals why Xylella fastidiosa will persist in Europe

Network analysis reveals why Xylella fastidiosa will persist in Europe

Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change

Sustainable Management of Plant Quarantine Pests: The Case of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome

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