Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products

Guo, Zhichao; Feng, Yuanhua; Tan, Xiangyong

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.007

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…If a level-shift is detected as a rate-shift, we will haveθ(T 0 ) ≈ γ(T 0 )/T 0 . If a rate-shift is detected as a level-shift, we will havê Guo et al (2011) proposed to use a second order polynomial as in the first step. It is however found that, in most of the cases, some of the coefficients are insignificant and the fitted models are unstable, because now the number of observations is much smaller than that in the first step.…”

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confidence: 99%

Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

Guo

Feng

Gries

2015

China Agricultural Economic Review

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by China's accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series.

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confidence: 99%

Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

Guo

Feng

Gries

2015

China Agricultural Economic Review

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“…In this sub-section, we will use some examples to confirm the theoretical results in Sections 3 and 4 in detail. The period from 2004 to 2008 is considered, because the trade development between China and Germany within this period is more stable without structural breaks (see Guo et al, 2011). At first, results of the three-level tree-form CMS model are listed in Table 1, which corresponds to the terms of Model (2).…”

Section: Numerical Evidence Of the Theoretical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For data classified at two levels, Toh et al (2004) and Lu and Mei (2007) propose to fit a CMS model first only using data of the first-level categories and then to fit one CMS model to each first-level category using data of the second-level sub-categories. Guo et al (2011) call this a hierarchical CMS model and discuss its theoretical background briefly, which only involves data at two levels and can be iteratively used at each level using data classified at the next level. The hierarchical CMS model is easy to understand and easy to use.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Tree-form Constant Market Share Model for Growth Causes in International Trade Based on Multi-level Classification

2013

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This paper introduces a tree-form constant market share (CMS) model for analyzing growth causes in international trade based on multi-level classification. The treeform CMS is a collection of CMS models at different levels, including the entire, branch-and leaf-models, which consists of a large amount of information and has a wide application spectrum. Basic properties of this model are investigated in detail. It is shown that the treeform CMS model is superior to other CMS models in the literature. It is also shown that well known CMS formulations are special cases of a linear class with two parameters, which control how the interaction term is divided into the demand growth and competitive terms. Application to bilateral trade between China and Germany shows that the growth causes in different periods are clearly different. It is shown that the outputs of the tree-form CMS model can be used for further suitable statistical analysis. Furthermore, our theoretical findings are also confirmed by those data examples.

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“…They also identified the improved production and export of higher value-added products as key factors of competitiveness. Measuring competitiveness with the Constant Market Share (CMS) model, Guo et al [41] distinguished short and long-term impacts. Both the CAP reform in Germany (1999) and the WTO accession in China (2001) caused negative short-term impacts in the Germany-China relationship; however, there were positive long-term impacts on their agri-food trade.…”

Section: Regional and Country-level Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agri-Food Trade Competitiveness: A Review of the Literature

Mizik

2021

Sustainability

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Being competitive in the international agri-food trade is an important aim of every country. It should be noted that this term has neither a commonly accepted definition nor a synthetized index to quantify it. The most commonly used indices in the international literature are the Balassa index and its modified versions (revealed trade advantage, revealed competitiveness, normalized revealed comparative advantage, and revealed symmetric comparative advantage) and different export and/or import-related indices (e.g., the Grubel–Lloyd index or the trade balance index). Based on a systematic review of the literature, these measurements were identified along with the major factors suggested for higher agri-food trade competitiveness. It seems that supportive legislation and/or (trade) policy is the most crucial factor, followed by higher value-added/more sophisticated goods, and high, efficient, and profitable production. Although the EU and its member states were overrepresented in the analyzed literature, the candidate countries, as well as other important trading partners of the EU, e.g., Canada, China, or the ASEAN countries, were also analyzed. Thus, some of these findings may be generalized.

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Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products

Abstract: Short-and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products Zhichao Guo, Yuanhua Feng, and Xiangyong Tan

Cited by 5 publications

References 24 publications

Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

A Tree-form Constant Market Share Model for Growth Causes in International Trade Based on Multi-level Classification

Agri-Food Trade Competitiveness: A Review of the Literature

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