The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by China's accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series.

Short-and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products Zhichao Guo, Yuanhua Feng, and Xiangyong Tan

This paper introduces a tree-form constant market share (CMS) model for analyzing growth causes in international trade based on multi-level classification. The treeform CMS is a collection of CMS models at different levels, including the entire, branch-and leaf-models, which consists of a large amount of information and has a wide application spectrum. Basic properties of this model are investigated in detail. It is shown that the treeform CMS model is superior to other CMS models in the literature. It is also shown that well known CMS formulations are special cases of a linear class with two parameters, which control how the interaction term is divided into the demand growth and competitive terms. Application to bilateral trade between China and Germany shows that the growth causes in different periods are clearly different. It is shown that the outputs of the tree-form CMS model can be used for further suitable statistical analysis. Furthermore, our theoretical findings are also confirmed by those data examples.

No abstract