Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

Abstract

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

Multi-objective interval prediction of wind power based on conditional copula function

“…China is rich in wind resources [1,2] and has adopted a national policy to vigorously develop wind power. However, wind power has strong randomness and volatility and is difficult to accurately predict [3][4][5][6][7][8], thus making wind power prediction a current hotspot in research. Most current studies of wind power prediction focus more heavily on point prediction [9][10][11][12][13][14] and less on interval prediction [15].…”

Multi-Objective Interval Prediction of Load Based on the Conditional Copula Function

“…Load prediction can be generally be divided into the following four categories according to the length of the forecast: long-term, medium-term, short-term, and ultra-short-term. Long-term load prediction is mainly used to predict the load situation in the next several years, generally used for grid planning and reconstruction work [6,7]; medium-term load prediction refers to prediction the load in the next few months to one year, mainly for reservoirs' operation scheduling, unit maintenance, and usage planning for fuel [8][9][10]; short-term load prediction is mainly for the next day to one week of load forecast, often used for optimizing the combination of water and thermal power and control of economic flow [11][12][13]; ultra-short-term load prediction is a hot spot of research in recent years [14,15], and mainly refers to load prediction for the next few minutes. Usually used for power quality control, safety monitoring for online operation, prevention and emergency control, its prediction accuracy directly affects economic dispatch, online safety monitoring, automatic generation control (AGC) frequency modulation, and preventive control emergency situations [16].…”