Significant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

Algarra, Iago; Nieto, Raquel; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Eiras‐Barca, Jorge; Trigo, Ricardo M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18876-w

Cited by 54 publications

(54 citation statements)

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“…Although we revealed how was the moisture accumulated and transported to Japan, this study was mainly based on one major event during the 20HR; multi-casts and longer simulations could reduce the potential uncertainties. On the other hand, recent studies have revealed that AR activities and related extreme precipitation events were enhanced during the past decades due to the warming climate (e.g., Algarra et al, 2020;Payne et al, 2020 and references therein). Therefore, our study also suggests the potential impacts of recent increasing SSTs over the subtropical WP (e.g., Bulgin et al, 2020) on the recorded heavy rainfall in Japan by enhancing the local evaporation and convection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Lagrangian view of moisture transport related to the heavy rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the moistening over the subtropical regions

Zhao

Manda

Guo

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Extremely heavy rain fell over Japan in July 2020 (hereafter, 20HR). The rainfall continued during this whole period and included several severe rainfall events. As reported by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), during this event, the 48 h precipitation exceeded 1,300 mm in many regions of western Japan (e.g., Kyushu, Gifu, Kochi, and Nagano). Specifically, some records indicate that the total precipitation was equal to nearly half of the historical annual mean (e.g., Fukuoka, Kagoshima; JMA, 2020). It was reported that 82 fatalities occurred, and 18,380 buildings were destroyed or damaged during the heavy rains (EOCJ, 2020). Kamae (2020), based on a series of early analyses, showed that a narrow plume of water vapor transport (.e., the atmospheric river, AR; also see Figure 1a) played a key role in 20HR. According to the results in Kamae (2020) and JMA (2020), this AR started from the South China Sea (SCS) and passed through the southeast China mainland, before turning west along the Baiu front. It was also reinforced by the low-level flows from the south, similar to previous events in Japan (e.g., Hirota et al., 2016;Tsuguti et al., 2019). Meanwhile, it is likely that the westward extension of the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) also enhanced the northward moisture transport from the SCS to Japan (e.g., Naoi et al., 2020).To date, the relationship between moisture transport and heavy rainfall during the Baiu season has been extensively studied (e.g.,

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Lagrangian view of moisture transport related to the heavy rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the moistening over the subtropical regions

Zhao

Manda

Guo

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In addition, according to Dettinger et al (2015), exports of tropical moisture (TMEs) occur in zones of intense vapor transport out of the tropics. These TMEs can provide important amounts of vapor for ARs, although most ARs additionally incorporate moisture from midlatitude sources and convergences of vapor along their paths (Algarra et al, 2020; Ramos et al, 2016a).…”

Section: Ars a Phenomenological Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With this definition in mind, the major areas affected by ARs generally correspond to the western regions of the continents (Algarra et al, 2020), with most of the impacts of extreme precipitation and floods in the western United States (e.g., Ralph et al, 2013; Corringham et al, 2019; Albano et al, 2020), western Europe (e.g., Eiras‐Barca et al, 2016; Ramos et al, 2015), western South America (e.g. Valenzuela & Garreaud, 2019; Viale et al, 2018), western South Africa (Blamey et al, 2018; Ramos et al, 2019), and the polar regions (e.g., Gorodetskaya et al, 2020; Nash et al, 2018).…”

Section: Ars a Phenomenological Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Positions of the centroids (colored dots) of the areas of moisture contribution associated with each of the landfalling atmospheric river (AR) events analyzed in Algarra et al (2020). Each region of landfalling AR is denoted by R and a number (from 1 to 24) and a color; each AR centroid is dotted with the same color as its R of landfall…”

Section: The Uncertain Subtropical Origin Of the Moisture In Arsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

et al. 2021

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The study of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their impacts on extreme precipitation are currently of great research interest in view of their clear socioeconomical implications. However, studies of this type generally contain caveats. The first of these is of a meteorological nature, and is concerned with the diversity of the different meteorological patterns that can be associated in the phenomenological definition, in that there is no guarantee that all so‐called ARs follow the same one. The second concern involves the initial definition of an AR, which implicitly assumes the subtropical origin of the atmospheric moisture that feeds it. To date, it has been observed that in many cases of ARs, most of the moisture originates in regions at higher latitudes. The aim of this article is to open a debate on these two aspects by using well‐known examples of ARs which fit different meteorological patterns, and showing a climatology of the moisture sources that feed ARs. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Extremes

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“…Statistically significant increases in the IVT magnitude at landfall are also observed for South Island ARs during autumn and spring (equivalent to a mean increase of 100 − 160 kgm −1 s −1 , p<0.15). In a global study of anomalous moisture uptake associated with ARs, Algarra et al, (2020) found a statistically significant increase in evapotranspiration rates associated with New Zealand landfalling ARs between 1980-2017. Thus, anomalous uptake of moisture likely contributed to the observed AR frequency trend, and intensification of ARs.…”

Section: Interaction Between Climate Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

Kennett¹

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Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow jets of intense water vapour flux that are a fundamental component of the global atmospheric circulation, transporting moisture and heat from the tropics to higher latitudes. When an AR makes landfall, especially in areas of steep topography, it releases much of its water vapour as precipitation through orographic uplift. Thus, although ARs play a positive role in the distribution and maintenance of water resources in the mid-latitudes, they are also associated with extreme precipitation and flooding. AR events in New Zealand have had major socio-economic consequences with losses to property, farmland, stock, roads and bridges. However, despite knowledge of their occurrence, focused investigations of ARs in New Zealand have received relatively little scientific attention. In particular, little is known about how large-scale climate patterns, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence ARs and AR-related precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to quantify the impacts and large-scale drivers of AR landfalls in New Zealand. We employ a new AR detection algorithm, developed specifically for the New Zealand case, to investigate landfalling ARs over a 41-year period from 1979-2019. We investigate the general climatology of ARs, and evaluate the synoptic conditions that drive these events. Using a comprehensive daily rainfall dataset comprising 189 stations, we also investigate the impacts of ARs on NZ rainfall and flooding events. For northern and western regions, over 45% of rainfall fell directly under AR conditions, contributing to daily rainfall totals 2.5 times higher on average compared to non-AR days. Further, we find that AR days were associated with up to 70% of daily rainfall totals above the 99th percentile, with insurance damages exceeding NZ $1.4 billion since 1980. Finally, for the first time in New Zealand, we investigate how large-scale climate patterns influence the occurrence of ARs. We find that changes in the leading modes of climate variability can alter seasonal and regional AR frequency by upwards of 30%. The SAM is identified as the dominant driver of AR activity (other than the seasonal cycle), with the positive SAM phase associated with a 16% reduction in AR occurrence during summer (30-35% reduction for the North Island). The links between AR occurrence and ENSO were less clear, though a few statistically significant relationships were found. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the leading mode of intraseasonal tropical variability, was found to significantly influence the frequency and timing of AR landfalls (particularly for the northern North Island). Favourable MJO phases were associated with positive AR frequency anomalies +60% above the mean. These results demonstrate potential use of the AR framework in skilful subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of extreme rainfall in New Zealand.

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Significant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

Cited by 54 publications

References 58 publications

A Lagrangian view of moisture transport related to the heavy rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the moistening over the subtropical regions

A Lagrangian view of moisture transport related to the heavy rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the moistening over the subtropical regions

Atmospheric river, a term encompassing different meteorological patterns

Drivers and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

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