Simulated and projected SST of Asian marginal seas based on CMIP6 models

Jin, Shanshan; Wei, Zexun; Wang, Dingqi; Xu, Tengfei

doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1178974

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 67 publications

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“…Middle and high latitudes experience more rapid warming, with the Sea of Okhotsk exhibiting a rate double the global average. In contrast, the SCS and Indonesian Seas warm at a pace comparable to the global average (Jin, Wei, et al, 2023). Similar to warming patterns, surface salinity trends exhibit spatial heterogeneity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Future Biogeochemical Conditions in Southern South China Sea from CMIP6 Model Projection

Marshal,

Chung,

Roseli

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This study employs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth System Models under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 to investigate the future projection of biogeochemical conditions in the southern South China Sea (SCS) from 2015 to 2100. We focus on projected changes in Sea Surface Temperature and seven important biogeochemical variables such as Chlorophyll, Phytoplankton, integrated Primary Production, Oxygen, Nitrate, Phosphate and pH. Our results consistently indicate substantial warming of +1 to +3 °C at the end of 21st century across all scenarios in southern SCS region, potentially leading to cascading consequences for marine ecosystems and fisheries. Projected increases in surface temperatures are expected to induce declining dissolved Oxygen levels of -3 to -8 mmol m-3 and ocean acidification of -0.1 to -0.4 units, posing a multifaceted threat to this crucial fishing ground. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a significant decrease in Phosphate concentrations ranging -1.4 to -2 mmol m-3/year across all scenarios. This decline in nutrient availability could potentially limit productivity and the entire marine food web in this region. These projections provide valuable scientific insights for policymakers and stakeholders to formulate strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on the southern SCS and ensuring the long-term sustainability of its fishery resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Future Biogeochemical Conditions in Southern South China Sea from CMIP6 Model Projection

Marshal,

Chung,

Roseli

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Accurate reconstruction of satellite-derived SST under cloud and cloud-free areas using a physically-informed machine learning approach

Young,

Cheng,

Lee

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing of Environment

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Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance in simulating historical biogeochemistry across the southern South China Sea

Marshal,

Xiang Chung,

Roseli

et al. 2024

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. This study evaluates the ability of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate biogeochemical variables in the southern South China Sea (SCS). The analysis focuses on key biogeochemical variables: chlorophyll, phytoplankton, nitrate, and oxygen based on their availability in the selected models at annual and seasonal scales. The models' performance is assessed against Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) data using statistical metrics such as the Taylor diagram and Taylor skill score. The results show that the models generally capture the observed spatial patterns of surface biogeochemical variables. However, they exhibit varying degrees of overestimation or underestimation in their quantitative measures. Specifically, their mean bias error ranges from −0.02 to +2.5 mg m−3 for chlorophyll, −0.5 to +1 mmol m−3 for phytoplankton, −0.1 to +1.3 mmol m−3 for nitrate, and −2 to +2.5 mmol m−3 for oxygen. The performance of the models is also influenced by the season, with some models showing better performance during June, July, and August than December, January, and February. Overall, the top five best-performing models for biogeochemical variables are MIROC-ES2H, GFDL-ESM4, CanESM5-CanOE, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and NorESM2-LM. The findings of this study have implications for researchers and end users of the datasets, providing guidance for model improvement and understanding the impacts of climate change on the southern SCS ecosystem.

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Simulated and projected SST of Asian marginal seas based on CMIP6 models

Cited by 3 publications

References 67 publications

Future Biogeochemical Conditions in Southern South China Sea from CMIP6 Model Projection

Future Biogeochemical Conditions in Southern South China Sea from CMIP6 Model Projection

Accurate reconstruction of satellite-derived SST under cloud and cloud-free areas using a physically-informed machine learning approach

Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance in simulating historical biogeochemistry across the southern South China Sea

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