Simulating animal spirits in actor-based environmental models

Hasselmann, Klaus; Kovalevsky, Dmitry V.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.04.007

Cited by 21 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…This decreases consumer income and thereby further demand, leading to a recession or business cycle Á also a prominent theme of public concern with respect to the appropriate response to the financial crisis. The impact of boom-and-bust events and business cycles on long-term economic growth has been investigated in the context of climate-change mitigation policies in Hasselmann and Kovalevsky (2013). In the following, we apply the feedback dynamics of recessions to the example of sovereign debt.…”

Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the following, the details of the model (specified, e.g. in alternative realisations in Weber et al 2005;Voinov, 2011 andKovalevsky, 2013) are irrelevant. The emphasis here is on the model's basic dynamic structure and the controlling role of actor behaviour.…”

Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our simulations were performed with a modified version of the Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model System MADIAMS (Weber et al, 2005;Hasselmann and Voinov, 2011;Hasselmann and Kovalevsky, 2013). 1 The model was calibrated against so-called stylised facts (Maddison, 1982(Maddison, , 1995, where available, but is otherwise based on estimated interaction parameters.…”

Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting and responding to climate change

Hasselmann

2013

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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Detecting and responding to climate change are two interrelated aspects of an important activity that Bert Bolin strongly promoted: the communication between scientists, the public and policy makers. The demonstration of a statistically significant anthropogenic contribution to the observed global warming greatly increased the public acceptance of the reality of climate change However, the separation between human-induced climate change and natural climate variability on the regional scales of greatest relevance for human living conditions remains a more difficult task. This applies to the prediction of both the anthropogenic signal and the natural variability noise. Climate mitigation and adaptation policies must therefore necessarily be designed as the response to uncertain risks. Unfortunately, the political response to climate change has stagnated in recent years through the preoccupation with the global financial crisis. Climate scientists can help overcome the current climate policy impasse through the creation of a new generation of simple, actor-based, system-dynamic models that demonstrate the close connection between the stabilisation of the global financial system and effective climate policies. Examples are given of alternative stabilisation policies that can lead either to major recessions and unemployment or to stable economic growth supported by an accelerated decarbonisation of the economy

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Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Globally Integrated Green-growth Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting and responding to climate change

Hasselmann

2013

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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“…However, to have a stronger impact on climate policy, these insights need to be translated into a new generation of actor-based system-dynamic models to replace the traditional GDP-based costbenefit analyses that have dominated the economic advice received by governments in the past [14][15][16][17][18][19][20] .…”

Section: Reframe the Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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et al. 2015

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“…In accordance with Hasselmann and Kovalevsky (2013), economic growth is made to be dependent on the way businesses choose to invest their own profits. Following this logic, the economics of farmers is considered dynamic throughout the simulation, and is based on the evolution of three key variables: physical capital, savings and insurance (premium and indemnity).…”

Section: Economic Scenario and Risk-taking Attitudesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-agent agro-economic simulation of irrigation water demand with climate services for climate change adaptation

et al. 2013

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Farmers' irrigation practices play a crucial role in the sustainability of crop production and water consumption, and in the way they deal with the current and future effects of climate change. In this study, a system dynamic multi-agent model adopting the soil water balance provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 was developed to explore how farmers' decision making may affect future water needs and use with a focus on the role of climate services, i.e. forecasts and insurance. A climatic projection record representing the down-scaled A1B market scenario (a balance across all sources) of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is used to produce future daily data about relative humidity, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. Two types of meteorological services are made available: i) a bi-weekly bulletin; and ii) seasonal forecasts. The precision of these services was altered to represent different conditions, from perfect knowledge to poor forecasts. Using the available forecasts, farming agents take adaptation decisions concerning crop allocation and irrigation management on the basis of their own risk attitudes. Farmers' attitudes are characterized by fuzzy classifications depending on age, relative income and crop profitability. Farming agents' adaptation decisions directly affect the crop and irrigation parameters, which in turn affect future water needs on a territorial level. By incorporating available and future meteorological services, the model allows the farmer's decision making-process to be explored together with the consequent future irrigation water demand for the period 2015 to 2030. The model prototype is applied to a data set of the Venice Lagoon Watershed, an area of 2038 km 2 in north-east Italy, for a preliminary test of its performance and to design future development objectives.

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Simulating animal spirits in actor-based environmental models

Cited by 21 publications

References 27 publications

Detecting and responding to climate change

Detecting and responding to climate change

Free-riders to forerunners

Multi-agent agro-economic simulation of irrigation water demand with climate services for climate change adaptation

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