Simulating land use and land cover change under contrasting levels of policy enforcement and its spatially-explicit impact on tropical forest landscapes in Ecuador

Lippe, Melvin; Rummel, Lisa; Günter, Sven

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106207

Cited by 24 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Thirdly, the aspect of forest degradation and deforestation must be considered in the forest landscape simulation [18]. The implemented simulation of deforestation for demand in woody input biomass for the potential subsistence demands of timber, fuelwood and charcoal is currently based on a dynamically simulated pixel location and stochastically by increasing biomass content per pixel.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) models, such as CLUEs [13,14] or PLUC [15,16] have been developed to simulate future landscape configurations. But despite the availability of diverse LULCC modeling tools [17], limitations remain in LULCC modeling for capturing forest disturbance regimes and succession stages [18]. Both are particularly relevant for the case of forest landscapes and FLR.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

Holler,

Kübler,

Conrad

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impacts of the Anthropocene on climate and biodiversity pose societal and ecological problems that may only be solved by ecosystem restoration. Local to regional actions are required, which need to consider the prevailing present and future conditions of a certain landscape extent. Modeling approaches can be of help to support management efforts and to provide advice to policy making. We present stage one of the LaForeT-PLUC-BE model (Landscape Forestry in the Tropics–PCRaster Land Use Change–Biogeographic & Economic model; in short: LPB) and its thematic expansion module RAP (Restoration Areas Potentials). LPB-RAP is a high-resolution pixel-based scenario tool that relies on a range of explicit land use types (LUTs) to describe various forest types and the environment. It simulates and analyzes future landscape configurations under consideration of climate, population and land use change long-term. Simulated Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) builds on dynamic, probabilistic modeling incorporating climatic and anthropogenic determinants as well as restriction parameters to depict a sub-national regional smallholder-dominated forest landscape. The model delivers results for contrasting scenario settings by simulating without and with potential Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) measures. FLR potentials are depicted by up to five RAP-LUTs. The model builds on user-defined scenario inputs, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Model application is here exemplified for the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario in the time frame 2018–2100 on the hectare scale in annual resolution using Esmeraldas province, Ecuador, as a case study area. The LPB-RAP model is a novel, heuristic Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) tool for smallholder-dominated forest landscapes, supporting near-time top-down planning measures with long-term bottom-up modeling. Its application should be followed up by FLR on-site investigations and stakeholder participation across all involved scales.

show abstract

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

Holler,

Kübler,

Conrad

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In order to analyse the evolution of forest management over time, we have developed several scenarios. Scenario modelling allows us to quantify the value of the indicators considered in this study from a reference year (2000) and to simulate future management planning, taking into account the objectives pursued in the case study (Lippe et al, 2022;Hallberg-Sramek et al, 2023). To simulate these scenarios (past, current and future forest management) we have introduced different restrictions according to the management plans published for Valsaín forest (2000, 2010, and 2020) and the simulation for 2070.…”

Section: Forest Management Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of forest management on the conservation of protected areas: A new proposal in Central Spain

Ezquerro,

Diaz-Balteiro,

Pardos

2023

Forest Ecology and Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Approach of spatial landscape analysis has been used in many fields and several researches related to development of conservation area also implemented this approach [9][10][11][12][13]. Eventhough those studies are not match excactly to this study in term of locations and the purposes, it is still relevant to be attented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model design of geothermal development plan in conservation forest: A case study in Mount Ciremai National Park

Susila¹,

Negara

Irsyad³

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In 2019, Indonesia has installed about 2.13 GW of geothermal and made it the second largest country utilizing geothermal. However, the capacity is less than 10% of the total potential and far from the target of 9.3 GW in 2030. A challenge in geothermal development is the environmental issue where more than 50% of the potential is located in conservation and protected forests. Recently, a regulation has been issued allowing geothermal development in those areas. A study to design a model of the forest area management for geothermal development was carried out in the Mount Ciremai National Park by identifying inventorying and evaluating the changes in forest zone utilization. There are three approaches applied in the study: ecology, social, and technical designs. The forest area management model was developed through stages, i.e., clustering of forest utilization and analysis of ecosystem, social activity, and area management alternatives. It is recommended that areas should be avoided are the core zone of the national park, nature preserve, areas that are indicated as important flora and fauna habitats, primary forests, and steeply sloped areas. It is about 1,369 Ha of the area that can be used for geothermal development.

show abstract

Simulating land use and land cover change under contrasting levels of policy enforcement and its spatially-explicit impact on tropical forest landscapes in Ecuador

Cited by 24 publications

References 62 publications

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

Implications of forest management on the conservation of protected areas: A new proposal in Central Spain

Model design of geothermal development plan in conservation forest: A case study in Mount Ciremai National Park

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About