Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Heslin, Alison; Puma, Michael J.; Marchand, Philippe; Carr, J. A.; Dell’Angelo, Jampel; D’Odorico, Paolo; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Porkka, Miina; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Seekell, David A.; Suweis, Samir; Tavoni, Alessandro

doi:10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026

Cited by 33 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The simultaneous occurrence of extremes across multiple regions, referred to as spatially compound extremes, have received relatively limited attention. Spatially compound extremes have the potential to accumulate hazard impacts in distant locations and pose amplifying pressures on a network of interconnected socioeconomic systems 1,[10][11][12][13][14][15] . For example, severe droughts that concurrently occurred across Asia, Brazil, and Africa during 1876 to 1878 led to synchronous crop failures, followed by famines that killed more than 50 million people in those regions 16 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

et al. 2022

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Spatially compound extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socialeconomic systems. We use an Earth system model large ensemble to examine the future risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions with highly seasonal climate. Relative to the late-20 th century, the probability, mean extent and severity of compound droughts increase by ~60%, ~10% and ~20% respectively by the late-21 st century, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes result in a ~9-fold increase in exposure over agricultural areas and ~5 to 20fold increase in population exposure depending on the shared socioeconomic pathway. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. ENSO teleconnections remain

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confidence: 99%

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

et al. 2022

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“…Of particular interest is the capacity of trade networks to absorb domestic production shortfalls. So far, relatively few attempts have been made to model the impact of short term shocks to the supply side of the global food system (but see Heslin et al, 2020). The global food system evolved with an increasing connectivity and volume of trade flows from 1992-2009 (Puma et al, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Trade strategies to mitigate the global impact of regional wheat production shocks

2021

MODSIM2021, 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.

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Shocks in regional wheat production can have severe repercussions for dependent importing countries elsewhere. Impacts due to climate extremes, natural disasters, but also (subsequent) export restrictions, reduce volumes of crop produce on international markets that can jeopardize local to national food security. In this manuscript, we consider the capacity of the global wheat trading network to absorb such shocks and identify the trade links between exporting and importing countries that are critical to do so.We specifically consider two questions:1. Without changing current trade links, can quantities traded be altered to improve the adaptive capacity of the global trade network to mitigate the impact of shocks?2. In the event of various shocks, which trade links must be versatile to ensure optimal reduction of global wheat deficit?We impose wheat production shocks in Eastern Europe and Russia, the USA, and Australia to simulate shocks in line with historic events. Assuming that increased prices would stimulate exporting countries to tap into their storage after satisfying domestic demand, we evaluate the most important trade links to optimally reduce the global wheat deficit. As such, we employ ant colony optimisation to reduce the global wheat deficit caused by the regional shocks. The ease with which different trade strategies can be implemented in practice is also considered. Countries cannot establish new trading links but can alter traded amounts. Thus, the minimum global deviation of estimated current traded quantitities is also minimised. The decision variables considered in the optimisation problem are the volumetric tradable quantities of wheat between countries, which allows for consideration of alternative trading strategies on a global scale. Two cases were considered, 1) all countries were able to access their initial storage, in all shock scenarios, to assist in the global reduction of deficit; 2) Russia, the largest exporter, was disallowed access to its storage for export purposes in accordance with historic requirements.We find that the current global trade network could not completely mitigate the deficit incurred as a result of the simulated shock. However, by redistributing trade quantities on existing trade links, the deficit was reduced considerably in all scenarios. Out of 619 trade links considered, 240 were found to be directly used in achieving minimum deficit solutions. However, while there is significant benefit in increasing the number of active trade links initially, this benefit diminishes towards the lower end of global deficit values. Activating the 30 most important trade links accounted for reducing the global wheat deficit in all scenarios by 80 to 95%.The study examines the (theoretical) ability of the trade network as a whole to mitigate the impact of shocks.Importing countries with only a few trading partners are at risk to wheat production shock occurring in those exporting countries. In addition, countries that are generally reliant on a variety of suppliers, but come t...

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“…These economic trade connections mean that global changes in consumption result in impacts on local water systems 6 . Likewise, local water system shocks can also propagate globally 7,8 . Water is a critical input to other sectors, such as energy, transportation, and manufacturing 9,10 , so that changes in the regional water supply or sectoral demand can propagate across sectors and scales.…”

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Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

et al. 2021

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Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

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Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Abstract: The handling Editor declared a past co-authorship with the MJP, PD'O, MK, and MP.

Cited by 33 publications

References 48 publications

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Trade strategies to mitigate the global impact of regional wheat production shocks

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

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