Simulating the Coupling of Rural Settlement Expansion and Population Growth in Deqing, Zhejiang Province, Based on MCCA Modeling

Abstract

Analyzing the relationship between rural settlements and rural population change under different policy scenarios is key in the sustainable development of China’s urban and rural areas. We proposed a framework that comprised the mixed land use structure simulation (MCCA) model and the human–land coupling development model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in rural settlements and its’ coupling relationship with the rural population in the economically developed region of Deqing, Zhejiang Province. The results showed that rural settlements and urban land increased by 14.36 and 29.07 km2, respectively, over the last 20 years. The expansion of some rural settlements and urban land occurred at the cost of cropland occupation. Rural settlements showed an expansion trend from 2000 to 2020, increasing from 42.69 km2 in 2000 to 57.05 km2 in 2020. In 2035, under the natural development scenario, the cropland protection scenario, and the rural development scenario, rural settlements are projected to show an expansion trend and Wukang and Leidian are the key regions with rural settlement expansion. The distance to Hangzhou, nighttime light data, distance to rivers, and precipitation are important factors influencing the expansion of rural settlements. The coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population developed in a coordinated manner from 2000 to 2020. For 2035, under different scenarios, the coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population showed different trends. In the rural development scenario, the highest number of towns with coordinated development between rural settlements and the rural population is in Deqing, predominantly with Type I coupling. Overall, an important recommendation from this study is that the sustainable development of regional land use can be promoted by controlling the occupation of cropland for urban and rural construction, balancing rural settlement expansion and rural population growth, and formulating land use policies that are more suitable for rural development.

Coupling of Changing Trends in Population and Construction Land in Traditional Rural Areas and Spatial Patterns in Urban–Rural Development, 2016–2021: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China

“…Currently, China attaches equal importance to achieving urbanization and rural revitalization and development; therefore, as a pertinent research issue, the four different types of coupling proposed in this study have been addressed by scholars in different studies [12,13,17,41]. In this research, the four types were studied simultaneously and used to reflect development levels and dynamic development trends in different villages.…”

“…Existing studies have focused on the coupling or decoupling state of population and construction land, being mostly static studies, and less on analyzing changing trends (taking into account the theory of system element coupling). These coupled change trends indicate the strength of the interaction between the system elements and allow us to visualize trends in the system's evolution rather than only predicting quantitative changes [17]. Some classical economic theories, such as growth pole theory [18] and diffusion theory [19], discuss the formation of urban-rural development patterns, using the important context of urban-rural population mobility and reconfiguration of urban-rural construction land, which provide an important theoretical basis for research.…”

Spatial Distribution and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Settlements in the Shiyang River Basin, Western China

“…The rural settlement area was examined via the visual interpretation of remote sensing images and a detailed comparison of land survey data in Gansu Province. Different scholars have various understandings of rural settlements [6,17,23,[37][38][39]. According to the Provisions of the Statistical Division of Urban and Rural Areas issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, in principle, the administrative units and division approved by the State Council are taken as the division objects.…”

“…In terms of research methods, point-axis theory, spatial analysis, gravity models, weighted Voronoi diagrams, and spatial autocorrelation are popularly applied [19][20][21]. Regarding research areas, many studies focus on rapidly urbanizing areas, metropolitan suburbs, the Loess Plateau region, and low mountainous and hilly areas [6,22,23]. Aimed at the driving factors, the existing literature has mainly explored how topographic conditions, transportation locations, and socio-economic situations impact the spatial pattern evolution of rural settlements [24].…”

Research on the Decoupling Relationship between Transportation Land and Population Growth: A Case of Guangdong Province in China

“…Common analytical techniques include the MCCA model, the coupling coordination model, the Tapio decoupling model, econometric models, etc. [14][15][16][17]. For instance, Feng Qiu et al utilized spatial econometric methods to analyze the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor (ECC) region of Alberta, Canada.…”