Simulating the Evolution of the Land and Water Resource System under Different Climates in Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Heilongjiang Province is under the pressure of a water shortage due to climate change, population growth and economic development. To effectively manage regional land and water resources, this paper describes a system dynamics model that was built to simulate the interaction between land and water resources and socioeconomic factors, as well as the evolution of regional land and water resources in different climates in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the declining trend of unused land area and the water supply-demand ratio will not stop, even under the most optimistic (e.g., humid climate) climate conditions, if the current land use patterns continue. Therefore, measures should be taken to manage the unreasonable usage patterns of land and water resources in this region. This study simulated the evolution of regional land and water resources for five scenarios under an arid climate by changing the net irrigation quota for paddy fields, the water quota for industrial use, forestland area, annual change rate of farmland area, and the growth rate of the gross industrial output value. Further, a combined scenario that can maximally reduce the regional land and water resource sustainable risk was identified. The simulation of the combined scenario showed that it can effectively increase the degree of regional land and water resource use in the region, as well as reduce the risks that threaten these resources. This study provides theoretical support for the efficient use of land and water resources in the future.

Optimization and Effect of Water Hardness for the Production of Slightly Acidic Electrolyzed Water on Sanitization Efficacy

“…The growing population with its accompanying industrialization and economic development has increased the pressure upon both water resources and our land ( Jiang et al, 2018 ). Industrial wastewater, pesticides, herbicides, and chemical fertilizers not properly contained have entered the soil, infiltrated some aquifers, and reduced the groundwater quality ( Chung et al, 2015 ).…”

The System Evaluation of Grain Production Efficiency and Analysis of Driving Factors in Heilongjiang Province

“…In order to analyze and predict the driving factors of grain production efficiency and intuitively understand the relationship among the driving factors, Vensim DSS software was used to construct the SD model of grain production in Heilongjiang Province based on Qiuxiang's model [2], which is introduced in LMDI ( Figure 1); words between the "< >" symbols indicate that the variable is repeated. Consider data availability and "12 consecutive increases", the time boundary of the model is from 2003 to 2030, of which 2003 to 2014 are the historical years, 2015 is the base year, and 2016 to 2030 are the planning years.…”

“…Water and land resources are indispensable resources for food production and economic/social development, and the supply and demand of water and land resources is related to the country's food security and sustainable development [1][2][3][4]. With the increase in population growth and the accelerating process of industrialization and urbanization, grain demand gradually increases [5], while the use of some land and water resources is shifting to "non-agricultural" purposes, which is irreversible.…”

Recent Advances in Adaptive Catchment Management and Reservoir Operation

“…Abera et al [37] assessed existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze Reservoir in the face of climate change. Jiang et al [38] built a system dynamics model to simulate the evolution of the land and water resource systems in Heilongjiang Province under different climate, economic and policy scenarios.…”