Simulating the Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi‐distributed monthly water balance model

Peng, Danling; Xu, Zhixing

doi:10.1002/hyp.7485

Cited by 30 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The results of insignificant WY trends at most of the stations (92%) and all the climatic zones were consistent with other studies that the past magnitude of variations in annual mean T were not high enough to cause significant change in annual streamflow (Gordon and Famiglietti, 2004;Vicuna and Dracup, 2007;Wang et al, 2008;Peng and Xu, 2009). However, since the ecosystems particularly in the water-limited regions have high dependency on water, any slight changes in WY (e.g., statistically insignificant changes) could have substantial influences on water resources and cause high pressure to ecosystems (McCabe and Wolock, 1997).…”

Section: Historical Trends Of Et Pet and Wysupporting

confidence: 91%

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Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North–South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

Lü

Sun

Feng

et al. 2013

Journal of Hydrology

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s u m m a r yChina is facing a growing water crisis due to climate and land use change, and rise in human water demand across this rapidly developing country. Understanding the spatial and temporal ecohydrologic responses to climate change is critical to sustainable water resource management. We investigated water yield (WY) responses to historical (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and projected potential climate changes across a large and complex climatic and land cover gradients over the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC, a standard terrestrial transect of the International GeoBiological Project, IGBP). After an annual scale evapotranspiration (ET) model was validated with historical streamflow records from ten watersheds, the model was applied to the NSTEC that encompasses seven climatic zones. We found that (1) The spatial and temporal variations of WY were highly dependent on precipitation (P) patterns during 1981-2000. Overall, the influences of significant temperature (T) rise on the trend of WY were suppressed by the insignificant P change during 1981-2000. (2) The long-term mean WY by climatic zone had a similar pattern as P. The different climatic zones had differential contributions to the total volumetric WY of the NSTEC. Within each climatic zone, the volumetric WY for each land cover type was highly dependent on its area of each land cover. (3) Corresponding to the P pattern, the mean WY decreased from the low (South) to high latitude (North), but the rates of changes varied along the NSTEC. Along the NSTEC, the sensitivity of WY to potential T and P changes increased from the high latitude to the low latitude. Future potential changes in WY are likely to follow changes in P with some modification by changes in energy availability. We conclude that precipitation is a major driver for water resource availability, and reliable prediction of future precipitation change patterns is critical to hydrologic forecast across the study region.

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Section: Historical Trends Of Et Pet and Wysupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Previous WY studies have found both increasing and decreasing trends in the 20th century (Wang et al, 2008;Peng and Xu, 2009;López-Moreno et al, 2011). The inconsistent findings among studies may be due to the differences in scale, climate conditions, LULC, study period, analysis methods, and the magnitude of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North–South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

Lü

Sun

Feng

et al. 2013

Journal of Hydrology

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“…Traditionally, hydrological models are forced by stationscale meteorological data in or near the studied watershed (e.g., Fang et al, 2015a;Peng and Xu, 2010). However, station-scale data can only describe the climate at a specific point in space, and most of them located at the foot of mountains.…”

Section: Observational Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, most hydrological modeling does not include glacier melt and accumulation processes. For example, Liu et al (2010) failed to account for the glacier processes in the VIC model in the Tarim River; Peng and Xu (2010) missed the glacier module in Xinanjiang and TOPMODEL;and Fang et al (2015a) failed to account for glacier processes, though the glacier melt could contribute up to 10 % of discharge of the Kaidu River basin. Similarly, in their research on the Yarkand River basin, Liu et al (2016a) neglected the influence of glacier melt in the SWAT and MIKE-SHE models, even though the glacier covered an area of 5574 km 2 .…”

Section: Glacier Melt Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

Chen

Fang

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

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“…Based on the DEM data, the topography index curve for the basin was calculated. Using TOPMODEL and the topography index curve to the Upper Medway Catchment, the overland flow and base flow were simulated (Beven and Kirkby, 1979;Beven and Freer, 2001;Peng and Xu, 2010), and the main parameters of TOPMODEL were listed in Table 2.…”

Section: Model Parameterisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of error propagation from radar rainfall to hydrological models

Zhu

Peng

Cluckie

2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study attempts to characterise the manner with which inherent error in radar rainfall estimates input influence the character of the stream flow simulation uncertainty in validated hydrological modelling. An artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution was developed to generate realisations of possible combinations of normalised errors and normalised bias to reflect the identified radar error and temporal dependence. These realisations were embedded in the 5 km/15 min UK Nimrod radar rainfall data and used to generate ensembles of stream flow simulations using three different hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity, which consists of a fully distributed physically-based model MIKE SHE, a semidistributed, lumped model TOPMODEL and the unit hydrograph model PRTF. These models were built for this purpose and applied to the Upper Medway Catchment (220 km 2 ) in South-East England. The results show that the normalised bias of the radar rainfall estimates was enhanced in the simulated stream flow and also the dominate factor that had a significant impact on stream flow simulations. This preliminary radar-error-generation model could be developed more rigorously and comprehensively for the error characteristics of weather radars for quantitative measurement of rainfall.

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Simulating the Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi‐distributed monthly water balance model

Cited by 30 publications

References 25 publications

Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North–South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North–South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

Statistical analysis of error propagation from radar rainfall to hydrological models

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