Simulation Climate Change Impact on Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Small Watershed in the Basque Country, Northern Spain

Zabaleta, Ane; Meaurio, Maite; Ruiz, E.; Antigüedad, Iñaki

doi:10.2134/jeq2012.0209

Cited by 69 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…The model was selected because it is a dynamic simulation model able to simulate streamflow response to climate change, it is in the public domain, and the generation of input files is eased by GIS-based tools. Although it is frequently applied to medium and large catchments with reasonably good results, it has also been calibrated for small forest catchments with good results [7,22], i.e., with semi-natural land use. So, the SWAT model can be applied for hydrologic simulation in small catchments under different climatic conditions.…”

Section: The Swat Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various approaches to assess the effects of climate change on water resources have been used [5][6][7][8]. In general, studies have reported that an increase in CO2, as long as temperature and rainfall remain constant, will cause increases in water yield due to the marked decrease of the stomatal conductance of plants, thus decreasing evapotranspiration [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Arias

Rodríguez‐Blanco

Nunes

et al. 2014

Water

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Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO2 is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes at the local scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration on water resources in a rural catchment in NW Spain for the periods 2031-2060 and 2069-2098, using 1981-2010 as a reference period. For the simulations we used compiled regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES project for future climate input data and two CO2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that changes in the concentration of CO2 and climate had a significant effect on water resources. Overall, the results suggest a decrease in streamflow of 16% for the period 2031-2060 (intermediate future) and 35% by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of decreasing rainfall (2031-2060: −6%; 2069-2098: −15%) and increasing temperature

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Section: The Swat Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Arias

Rodríguez‐Blanco

Nunes

et al. 2014

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…All sectors depending on water availability are now vastly exposed to the climate change impacts [5]. Hence, climate change can also impact sediment export [6,7], crop yield and biomass [8,9], water quality [10], etc. All these are driven by streamflow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

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This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961-1982 and 1983-2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969Makana, and -1985Makana, and and 1986Makana, and -2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (F agg ) which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon), compared to the 1971-2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin) to 22% (Gambia River Basin) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin) and 26% (Gambia River Basin). The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

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“…Climate models estimate [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] that the global average temperature is likely to increase 4.0 • C by the conclusion of the 21st century [9]. Reliable prediction of climate is pre-requisite to comprehend its impacts on hydrology and water resources [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

Babur

Babel

Shrestha

et al. 2016

Water

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Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT) for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) and compared with the baseline data to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

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Simulation Climate Change Impact on Runoff and Sediment Yield in a Small Watershed in the Basque Country, Northern Spain

Cited by 69 publications

References 71 publications

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

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