Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Climate change is supposed to remarkably affect the water resources of coastal lagoons as they are highly vulnerable to changes occurring at their catchment and/or ocean or sea boundaries. Probable impacts of projected climate changes on catchment hydrology and freshwater input were assessed using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine) and Vistula Lagoon (Poland/Russia) under a set of 15 climate scenarios covering the time period until the year 2100. Climate change signals for all regions show continuously increasing trends in temperature, but various trends in precipitation. Precipitation is projected to decrease in two catchments on the Iberian Peninsula and increase in the Baltic region catchment, and does not show a clear trend in the catchment located near the Black Sea. The average projected changes in freshwater inputs reflect these changes in climate conditions, but often show variability between the scenarios, in future periods, and within the catchments. According to the individual degrees of water management influences in the four drainage basins, the climate sensitivity of river inflows is differently pronounced in each.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios

Hesse

Stefanova

Krysanova

2015

“…It is a continuous-time model that operates on a daily time step and was developed for the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) to predict the impact of management on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds [39]. The model is physically-based, uses readily available inputs, is computationally efficient, and is able to continuously simulate long-term impacts.…”

Section: Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

Abstract:The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

“…The Corbeira catchment was chosen for this study because it is a very sensitive area in terms of climate change on hydrological processes as it is projected to undergo a substantial decrease in rainfall and streamflow, especially at the end of the 21st century [14]. The Corbeira catchment is located upstream of the Cecebre reservoir, which is the main drinking water source of A Coruña city and surrounding municipalities (450,000 inhabitants) in NW Spain.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change projections for the Iberian Peninsula indicate a decreasing trend in annual mean rainfall and an increase in heavy rainfalls [9,10], although there are divergences depending on the model and the greenhouse gas emission scenario used. The impact of the expected climate change on river regimes in the Iberian Peninsula has been estimated by several scientists [11][12][13][14][15][16], but the impact of changes on soil erosion and sediment yield at catchment scale has received less attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Suspended Sediment Yield in NW Spain: A Case Study on the Corbeira Catchment

Rodríguez‐Blanco

Arias

Taboada-Castro

et al. 2016

Self Cite

Soil losses and the subsequent sediment delivery constitute significant environmental threats. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the availability of water and therefore on sediment yield in catchments. In this context, quantifying the sediment response to an increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change is of utmost importance to the proper management of rural catchments. However, quantitative assessment of climate change impact remains a complex task. In this study, the potential medium (2031-2060) and long-term (2069-2098) impacts of projected changes of temperature, rainfall and CO 2 concentration on sediment yield in a small rural catchment located in NW Spain were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Climate change scenarios were created using future climate data projected by regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project and two CO 2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that climate change would have a noticeable impact on suspended sediment if the forecast temperature, rainfall and CO 2 concentration changes included in this study were met. Overall, suspended sediment is expected to decrease (2031-2060: −11%, 2069-2098: −8%) compared to the baseline period , mainly due to decreased streamflow. However, an increase in sediment transport in winter is predicted, possibly associated with increased erosion in cultivated areas (11%-17%), suggesting that, at this time of the year, the effect of soil detachment prevails over sediment transport capacity. Consequently, management practices aimed at reducing soil erosion in cultivated areas should be carried out, because these are the main source of sediment in the study area.