Simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies during the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea

Kim, Eu-Tteum; Pak, Son‐Il

doi:10.13041/jpvm.2018.42.3.99

Cited by 5 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The FMD outbreak in 2001 in the United Kingdom resulted in severe economic losses totaling more than £2.8 billion and required the slaughter of approximately 6.5 million animals [ 2 ]. Recently, several major outbreaks have occurred in previously FMD-free countries, including South Korea and Japan [ 3 – 5 ]. Although the United States has been free of FMD since 1929, the disease is still prevalent in approximately two-thirds of the world [ 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems

et al. 2020

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As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of mandatory traceability programs, previous epidemic models for U.S. cattle production systems heavily rely on contact rates estimated based on expert opinions and survey data. These models are often based on static networks and ignore the sequence of movement, possibly overestimating the epidemic sizes. In this research, we adapt and employ an agent-based model that simulates beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas to analyze the between-premises transmission of a highly contagious disease, foot-and-mouth disease. First, we assess the impact of truck contamination on the disease transmission with the truck agent following an independent clean-infected-clean cycle. Second, we add an information-sharing functionality such that producers/packers can trace back and forward their trade records to inform their trade partners during outbreaks. Scenario analysis results show that including indirect contact routes between premises via truck movements can significantly increase the amplitude of disease spread, compared with equivalent scenarios that only consider animal movement. Mitigation strategies informed by information sharing can effectively mitigate epidemics, highlighting the benefit of promoting information sharing in the cattle industry. In addition, we identify salient characteristics that must be considered when designing an information-sharing strategy, including the number of days to trace back and forward in the trade records and the role of different cattle supply chain stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis results show that epidemic sizes are sensitive to variations in parameters of the contamination period for a truck or a loading/unloading area of premises, and indirect contact transmission probability and future studies can focus on a more accurate estimation of these parameters.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems

et al. 2020

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“…Livestock diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are highly contagious and can lead to destructive economic losses in vast geography [1][2][3][4]. In epidemiological modeling, between-farm transmission via animal movement has been extensively studied and are often categorized as "direct contacts" [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the effects of contact structures and information sharing on the FMD transmission among beef cattle farms

Yang

Scoglio

2020

Preprint

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Moving infected animals and sharing contaminated equipment and vehicles are considered as the most effective ways for between-farm disease transmission. The objective of this study is to develop a network-based simulation model to investigate the effects of direct contact, indirect contact, and their combination on a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease spread between beef-cattle farms in southwest Kansas, the US.

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“…Simulation results reveal the significant role truck movement (indirect contact) plays in further exacerbating the disease spread in the system, compared with equivalent scenarios that only consider animal movement (direct contact). For example, median [inter-quartile range] number of infected producers is 4 [3–6] vs. 82 [63–101.5] in baseline scenarios DI_B (direct contact only) and D&IN_B (direct and indirect contact) respectively. This highlights the need for a deeper understanding of indirect transmission mediated by fomites, and improved analyses or experiments need to be conducted to more accurately quantify fomite survival time and indirect contact transmission probability.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The FMD outbreak in 2001 in the United Kingdom resulted in severe economic losses totaling more than £2.8 billion and required the slaughter of approximately 6.5 million animals [2]. Recently, several major outbreaks have occurred in previously FMD-free countries, including South Korea, Japan, and Uganda [3–5]. Although the United States has been free of FMD since 1929, the disease is still prevalent in approximately two-thirds of the world [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards resilient beef cattle production systems: Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading

Yang

Gruenbacher

Stamm

et al. 2020

Preprint

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24As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of mandatory traceability 25 programs, previous epidemic models for U.S. cattle production systems heavily rely on contact rates 26 estimated based on expert opinions and survey data. These models are often based on static networks and 27 ignore the sequence of movement, possibly overestimating the epidemic sizes. In this research, we adapt 28 and employ an agent-based model that simulates beef cattle production and transportation in southwest 29 Kansas to analyze the between-premises transmission of a highly contagious disease, the foot-and-mouth 30 disease. First, we assess the impact of truck contamination on the disease transmission with the truck agent 31 following an independent clean-infected-clean cycle. Second, we add an information-sharing functionality 32 such that producers/packers can trace back and forward their trade records to inform their trade partners 33 during outbreaks. Scenario analysis results show that including indirect contact routes between premises 34 via truck movements can significantly increase the amplitude of disease spread, compared with equivalent 35 scenarios that only consider animal movement. Mitigation strategies informed by information sharing can 36 dramatically improve the system resilience against epidemics, highlighting the benefit of promoting 37 information sharing in the cattle industry. In addition, we identify salient characteristics that must be 38 considered when designing an information-sharing strategy, including the number of days to trace back and 39 forward in the trade records and the role of different cattle supply chain stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis 40 results show that epidemic sizes are sensitive to variations in parameters of fomite survival time and indirect 41 contact transmission probability and future studies can focus on a more accurate estimation of these 42 parameters. 43 44

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Simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies during the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems

Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems

Understanding the effects of contact structures and information sharing on the FMD transmission among beef cattle farms

Towards resilient beef cattle production systems: Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading

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