In September 2019, African swine fever (ASF) was reported in South Korea for the first time. Since then, more than 651 ASF cases in wild boars and 14 farm outbreaks have been notified in the country. Despite the efforts to eradicate ASF among wild boar populations, the number of reported ASF-positive wild boar carcasses have increased recently. The purpose of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses to identify the risk factors associated with the presence and number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in the affected areas. Because surveillance efforts have substantially increased in early 2020, we divided the study into two periods (2 October 2019 to 19 January 2020, and 19 January to 28 April 2020) based on the number of reported cases and aggregated the number of reported ASF-positive carcasses into a regular grid of hexagons of 3-km diameter. To account for imperfect detection of positive carcasses, we adjusted spatial zero-inflated Poisson regression models to the number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses per hexagon. During the first study period, proximity to North Korea was identified as the major risk factor for the presence of African swine fever virus. In addition, there were more positive carcasses reported in affected hexagons with high habitat suitability for wild boars, low heat load index (HLI), and high human density. During the second study period, proximity to an ASF-positive carcass reported during the first period was the only significant risk factor for the presence of ASF-positive carcasses. Additionally, low HLI and elevation were associated with an increased number of ASF-positive carcasses reported in the affected hexagons. Although the proportion of ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.06 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.05–0.07) to 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.08–0.10), the probability of reporting at least one positive carcass in ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.49 (95% CrI: 0.41–0.57) to 0.73 (95% CrI: 0.66–0.81) between the two study periods. These results can be used to further advance risk-based surveillance strategies in the Republic of Korea.

Background African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars ( Sus scrofa ) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R 0 ) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R 0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics. Objectives This study was undertaken to estimate the R 0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Methods We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R 0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed. Results Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R 0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar. Conclusions The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease in domestic pigs and wild boar that causes tremendous socioeconomic damage in related industries. In 2019, the virus emerged in South Korea, which has since reported 21 outbreaks in domestic pig farms and over 2,600 cases in wild boar. In this review, we synthesize the epidemiological knowledge generated on ASF in South Korea during the first three years of the epidemic (2019–2021). We searched four international and one domestic Korean database to identify scientific articles published since 2019 and describing ASF epidemiology in South Korea. Fourteen articles met our selection criteria and were used to synthesize the origin of ASF in South Korea, the risk factors of disease occurrence, the effectiveness of the surveillance and intervention measures that were implemented, and the viral transmission dynamics. We found that timely intensive surveillance and interventions on domestic pig farms successfully blocked between-farm transmission. However, in wild boar, the ASF virus has spread massively towards the south primarily along the mountain ranges despite ongoing fence erection and intensive depopulation efforts, endangering domestic pig farms across the country. The current devastating epidemic is suspected to be the consequence of an ASF control strategy unaligned to the epidemiological context, the challenging implementation of control measures hindered by topological complexities, and inappropriate biosecurity by field workers. To improve our understanding of ASF epidemiology in South Korea and enhance disease management, future research studies should specify the ecological drivers of disease distribution and spread and devise effective control strategies, particularly in relation to Korean topography, and the latent spread of the virus in wild boar populations. Additionally, research studies should explore the psychosocial factors for ASF management, and develop tools to support evidence-based decision-making for managing ASFV in wild boar.

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Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to Georgia in 2007, the disease has spread to many other countries including South Korea. Initial detection of ASF from wild boars (WB) in South Korea was reported in early October 2019. Since then, more than a thousand WB samples collected from the northern part of the country have been confirmed as ASF positive (2.9% of ASF positivity among WB samples collected until June 2020), indicating that the disease is endemic in the WB populations. To control the disease, multiple layers of fence‐lines have been erected. Nevertheless, outbreaks continuously occurred across the fence, requiring a better understanding of the spatial transmission mechanism of ASF in WBs. Hence, we developed a novel ASF transmission model to estimate ecological and epidemiological parameters related to the spread of the disease in the WB population of South Korea. The results showed that roads and rivers were effective to prevent the spread, reducing the transmission rate to approximately 37% on average. Only a limited level of reduction was indicated via fence‐lines, implying erection of fences might be considered as a temporary measure to delay the spread. This study also revealed that the probability of ASF transmission to adjacent habitats considerably decreased with increasing distance, supporting the slow spatial transmission speed reported from other European countries. Considering that elucidation of ASF dynamics in WB is crucial to mitigate the impact of the disease, we believe this study provides some useful ecological and epidemiological implications to control the disease in future.