Simulation of the 23 July 2012 extreme space weather event: What if this extremely rare CME was Earth directed?

Abstract

[1] Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units ( 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME. We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

“…The modelled minimum D st is comparable to that of the 1859 Carrington event 4 , the largest known solar disturbance before the space age. These results are consistent with previous estimates or speculations [35][36][37] . An ICME (ICME0; shaded region) with two preceding shocks (vertical dashed lines) can be identified.…”

Space Weather: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives

“…This 1859 geomagnetic storm ("the Carrington event") has served as the reference point for defining great storms, and for identifying impacts from such a great storm on contemporary technologies, including long conductors (e.g., Cliver 2006; National Academies 2008; Tsurutani et al 2003;Chigomezyo et al 2013). Prescott (1860Prescott ( , 1875) records a number of first hand experiences of the telegraph operators during the Carrington event.…”

Solar Energetic Particle Event Associated With the 2012 July 23 Extreme Solar Storm

“…The solar storm on 2012 July 23 is of particular interest for space weather as it produced a superfast shock and extremely enhanced magnetic fields at 1 au (e.g., Baker et al 2013;Ngwira et al 2013;Russell et al 2013;Liu et al 2014;Riley et al 2015;Temmer & Nitta 2015). Liu et al (2014) suggest that the extreme solar storm was caused by CME-CME interactions, with the twofast CMEs separated by about 10-15 minutes.…”