Simulation of the incidence of malignant brain tumors in birth cohorts that started using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan

Abstract

Over 20 years have passed since the initial spread of mobile phones in Japan. Epidemiological studies of mobile phone use are currently being conducted around the world, but scientific evidence is inconclusive. The present study aimed to simulate the incidence of malignant brain tumors in cohorts that began using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan. Mobile phone ownership data were collected through an Internet‐based questionnaire survey of subjects born between 1960 and 1989. The proportion of mobile phone ownership between 1990 and 2012 was calculated by birth cohort (1960s, 1970s, and 1980s). Subsequently, using the ownership proportion, the incidence of malignant brain tumors was calculated under simulated risk conditions. When the relative risk was set to 1.4 for 1,640 h or more of cumulative mobile phone use and the mean daily call duration was 15 min, the incidence of malignant brain tumors in 2020 was 5.48 per 100,000 population for the 1960s birth cohort, 3.16 for the 1970s birth cohort, and 2.29 for the 1980s birth cohort. Under the modeled scenarios, an increase in the incidence of malignant brain tumors was shown to be observed around 2020. © 2019 Bioelectromagnetics Society

The effect of exposure to radiofrequency fields on cancer risk in the general and working population: A protocol for a systematic review of human observational studies

“…On these grounds, we will only consider “simulation studies”, purposely planned to assess the external plausibility of findings from analytical studies of specific CNS tumour risks in relation to mobile phone use, by comparing predicted and observed time-trends of incidence rates. To date, studies of this type have been conducted for malignant brain tumours in the whole ( Chapman et al, 2016 , Sato et al, 2019 ); for gliomas ( de Vocht, 2016 , de Vocht, 2017 , de Vocht, 2019 , Deltour et al, 2012 , Karipidis et al, 2018 , Karipidis et al, 2019 , Little et al, 2012 , Villeneuve et al, 2021 ); for glioma subtypes [astrocytoma ( Little et al 2012 ); glioblastoma multiforme ( de Vocht, 2016 , de Vocht, 2019 )]; and for multiple histotypes of malignant and benign tumours in the temporal lobe ( de Vocht 2019 ). We intend using findings from these studies to set a range of “implausible sizes” for the measures of effect reported by the glioma/brain cancer studies considered in SR-A.…”

Efekat dejstva elektromagnetnog zračenja bežičnih mreža i mobilnih telefona na zdravlje ljudi

“…Epidemiološke studije o korišćenju mobilnih telefona se trenutno sprovode širom sveta, ali naučni dokazi još uvek nisu dovoljno ubedljivi. Najnovija studija izvedena u Japanu [8] je imala za cilj da simulira učestalost malignih tumora mozga u kohortama koje su počele da koriste mobilne telefone kada su oni postali popularni u Japanu. Kako je prošlo više od 20 godina od početka upotrebe mobilnih telefona u Japanu, podaci o vlasnicima mobilnih telefona prikupljani su putem upitnika koji je sproveden putem Interneta, a ispitanici su rođeni između 1960. i 1989. godine.…”

“…1). Prema modeliranim scenarijima, očekivano povećanje incidencije malignih tumora mozga se pokazalo oko 2020. godine [8]. Ova studija je otkrila da se u modeliranim scenarijima, povećanje incidencije malignih tumora mozga očekuje oko 2020. godine, ali i da treba ispitati da li, i u kojoj od ispitivanih kohorti, postoji povećana incidencija malignih tumora mozga.…”