Simulation of Water Level Fluctuations in Kettle Holes Using a Time Series Model

Abstract

Kettle holes are widespread in moraine landscapes. Their hydrological properties may be very vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. To increase our knowledge of how kettle holes function and how they may be affected by climate change requires a model that can be applied to a variety of them regardless of their properties. We used the PIRFICT time series model to simulate the water levels in kettle holes over the last 50 years. For model calibration we applied time series of two-year lengths. We observed correlations between climate indices and water level statistics with a delayed response of one year. The results show a decrease in autumn low water levels and an increase in water level fluctuations. These effects correspond to observed increased summer evaporation and winter precipitation, and imply that the habitat quality dynamic of kettle holes depends on climatic conditions. With the prognosis of even warmer and dryer summers in Europe in the future, conservation strategies for kettle holes should include the effects of climate change.

Water circulation in the moraine ponds of northern Poland

“…Results of the studies of small water bodies on the American prairies (Woo & Rowsell, 1993;Winter & Rosenberry, 1995;Ferone & Devito, 2004;Skalbeck et al, 2009) have suggested that they are connected with groundwater reservoirs. This has also been demonstrated in a number of studies of moraine ponds in Mecklenburg, Germany (Lehsten, 2011).…”

“…The presence of ponds situated in endorheic depressions is thought to be determined by the atmospheric exchange of water, i.e. by precipitation and evaporation (Drwal, 1982;Drwal & Lange, 1985;Drwal, 1990;Lehsten et al, 2011). The amount of water stored in the pond depends on the flux of the atmospheric exchange of water.…”

“…The amount of water stored in the pond depends on the flux of the atmospheric exchange of water. It is therefore commonly believed, especially by authorities responsible for agriculture, that the fundamental hydrological function of ponds in endorheic areas is to collect and store water gained from precipitation and lost by evaporation (Fiedler, 2002;Lehsten et al, 2011). Most hydrologists are aware of the fact that ponds have contact with groundwater (Lehsten et al, 2011), but still insufficient information is available on the role of ponds in the water cycle.…”

“…It is therefore commonly believed, especially by authorities responsible for agriculture, that the fundamental hydrological function of ponds in endorheic areas is to collect and store water gained from precipitation and lost by evaporation (Fiedler, 2002;Lehsten et al, 2011). Most hydrologists are aware of the fact that ponds have contact with groundwater (Lehsten et al, 2011), but still insufficient information is available on the role of ponds in the water cycle. Ponds have traditionally been considered unimportant for the functioning of river networks, and have so far been regarded as typical of and exclusive to endorheic areas (Drwal & Lange, 1985;Drwal, 1990).…”

Valuing Multiple Benefits, and the Public Perception of SUDS Ponds

“…Natural ponds are ecological features which may exist naturally in depressions or glacial features such as kettle holes [5], or adjacent to flood plains [6]. Natural ponds may be filled by an underground spring or with rainfall, and in this paper they are regarded as 'reference' conditions because they ideally have minimal human disturbance.…”