Simulation scenarios of spatio-temporal arrangement of crops at the landscape scale

Castellazzi, Marie; Matthews, James; Angevin, Frédérique; Sausse, Christophe; Wood, Gavin; Burgess, Paul J.; Brown, Iain; Conrad, K. F.; Perry, J. N.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.006

Cited by 66 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…expansion of agricultural land due to increased food demand and iii) future land use with enhanced phosphorus mitigation strategies. The future land use scenario (ii) describes an increase in agricultural land area and was quantified using the land cover model LandSFACTS (Castellazzi et al, 2010) which focuses on crop arrangement scenarios, considering food security as a dominant driving force for land use change. For the River Thames, this land-use scenario projects a shift from an almost equal proportion of arable land and grassland to a clear prevalence of arable land.…”

Section: Land Use/land Management Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, uniform changes in precipitation and temperature were found to exert stronger control on phytoplankton than other climatic alterations (Lack, 1971;Malone, 1991;Bowes et al, 2012), such as changes in solar radiation. For this reason, manually-altered time series of precipitation and temperature were considered in this study and were used to drive a hydrological and water quality model (the INCA hydrological and water quality model; Whitehead et al, 1998) under different scenarios of land-use (Castellazzi et al, 2010) and mitigation strategies . Then, the results of the hydrological and water quality model (water flow and phosphorus concentration) were used to drive a phytoplankton model (Whitehead et al, 2015a), and climate-altered phytoplankton abundance series were obtained for each of the considered land-use and mitigation scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Article (refereed) -postprintBussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Bowes, Michael J.; Read, Daniel S.; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J. 2016. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. AbstractPotential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenarioneutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England).In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

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Section: Land Use/land Management Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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“…In the present case study, a freely-available tool (LandSFACTS: Castellazzi et al, 2010) has been used to integrate both top-down and bottom-up constraints on scenarios using a rulebased approach. Such tools can facilitate the linking of baseline GIS data with the rationale that defines each scenario, when codified as a series of rules, to generate a coherent package of quantified spatio-temporal outputs consistent with the original scenario framework and descriptions.…”

Section: Scenarios and Landscape Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

Wang

Miller

Brown

et al. 2015

International Journal of Digital Earth

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“…Watts & Handley, 2010;Martín-Martín et al, 2013); • Landscape or habitat connectivity or connectedness modelling as well as target animal movements, using for example percolation or cost-distance models (Richard & Armstrong, 2010;Etherington & Holland, 2013); • Evaluation of management scenarios according to different sets of valuation criteria (Fernandes, 2000a;Castellazzi et al, 2010;Bryan et al, 2011).…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Let's consider several works conducted in different Atlantic islands (Diniz & Matos, 1986;Cruz, 1994;Diniz & Matos, 1999;Capelo, 2004;del-Arco et al, 2006del-Arco et al, , 2009. One can verify that the master lines of the ecological zoning in these islands are primarily referred to morphological factors (slope position, local morphology and aspect) that will influence the critical climatic factors (water and temperature) in terms of direct exposure or shelter, in terms of altitudinal zoning or in the exposure to the different types of winds with different moisture content (influencing rainfall and evapotranspiration), as well as to the indirect precipitation associated with the formation of stable cloud belts at given altitudes.…”

Section: Application To the Universe Of Small Islandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying an integrated landscape characterization and evaluation tool to small islands (Pico, Azores, Portugal)

Fernandes¹,

Guiomar²,

Freire³

et al. 2014

RGCI

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Each landscape is determined and can be characterised by two types of environmental factors: stable biophysical characteristics and manageable land use patterns. The consideration of both these characterisation domains allows the definition of a homogeneous system of reference (the stable characteristics) with which every possible land use pattern can be compared through the use of common evaluation algorithms. The Integrated Landscape Assessment (ILA) concept builds a framework for data retrieval and evaluation processing that maximizes the following advantages: through the use of a stable reference system, it allows the comparative simulation of different land use scenarios, as well as the permanent availability of the same reference system, independently from the intensity of land use changes throughout the years. It also allows the use of different evaluation algorithms according to different evaluation contexts or paradigms, without having to repeat or adapt the characterisation process.The present paper illustrates the basic concepts on which ILA is based and developed as well as its application to ecological planning and systematic conservation planning in the Pico Island (Azores Archipelago).Keywords: Systematic conservation planning, integrated landscape assessment, GIS, Macaronesia. Resumo Cada território é determinado e pode ser caracterizado por dois tipos de factores ambientais: características biofísicas estáveis e padrões de uso do solo susceptíveis de gestão. A consideração destes dois domínios de caracterização permite a definição de um sistema de referência homogéneo (as características

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Simulation scenarios of spatio-temporal arrangement of crops at the landscape scale

Cited by 66 publications

References 38 publications

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

Applying an integrated landscape characterization and evaluation tool to small islands (Pico, Azores, Portugal)

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