Simulations of 21st century snow response to climate change in Switzerland from a set of RCMs

Abstract

Twenty‐first century snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) changes are assessed for three time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2079 and 2070–2099) at 11 stations in Switzerland with the physics‐based snow model SNOWPACK and meteorological input data perturbed by the output from ten regional climate models (RCMs) through the delta change method. Unlike in previous studies, incoming long‐wave radiation has also been modified for future climatic conditions. We thus show the range of future snow simulations assuming different RCM projections. Model validation yields satisfying results for simulating snow depth and SWE for the reference period with errors in the order of 9% and 15%, respectively. For the end of the century, the stations between 1000–1700 m a.s.l. show no pronounced elevation dependence but surprisingly react quite similarly in terms of the relative magnitude of snow cover decrease, which may reach 90%. The projected small increase in winter precipitation has almost no effect at these stations, but incoming long‐wave radiation has an important effect. At the high‐elevation station Weissfluhjoch (2540 m a.s.l.) however, the precipitation increase is partly able to compensate for the increased temperature. This would imply that the snow cover at mid‐elevation stations becomes temperature and radiation dominated and will react similarly to the spatially small differences in the projected temperature change. The low‐elevation stations already show a strong decrease in the near future, and the inclusion of modified incoming long‐wave radiation has almost no effect on the decrease of future snow depth and SWE because the temperatures are already close to the melting point in the reference period. At the end of the century, mean snow depth/SWE are reduced by 35/32%, 83/86% and 96/97% at high‐, mid‐ and low‐elevations, respectively.

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

“…These projected changes in snow coverage generally show similar patterns to studies for other Alpine sites (e.g., Beniston et al, 2003;Marty et al, 2017;Schmucki et al, 2015a;Steger et al, 2012), however with a tendency to lower relative decreases in average snow amounts. This is likely due to the comparatively strong increases in winter precipitation especially for the warmest (RCP8.5) scenario (Fig.…”

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

“…These projected changes in snow coverage generally show similar patterns to studies for other Alpine sites (e. g., Beniston et al, 2003;Marty et al, 2017;Schmucki et al, 2015a;Steger et al, 2012), however with a tendency to lower relative decreases in average snow amounts. This is likely due to the comparatively strong increases in winter precipitation especially for the warmest (RCP8.5) scenario (Fig.…”

“…30 For the model simulations, a digital elevation model (DEM) resampled to 100 m resolution was used. Initial ice thickness distributions for all glaciers in the region were calculated based on the glacier outlines and surface elevations of the year 1997 using the methodology by Huss and Farinotti (2012).…”

“…Looking at the multi-model mean values for the three emission scenarios, the largest changes in glacierization occur already within the first half of the century, where -relatively independent of the emission scenario -the glaciers lose between approx. 60 % (RCP2.6) 30 and 65 % (RCP8.5) of their volume from the beginning of the century. After 2050, the slope of the curves decreases and differences between the three scenarios become more prominent.…”

Snowmobile impacts on snowpack physical and mechanical properties

“…Further, snowmaking (Spandre et al, 2016a) to supplement natural snow conditions and /or grooming (Fahey et al, 1999;Rixen et al, 2001;Spandre et al, 2016a) compacts the snowpack below it, and alters the underlying snowpack properties (Howard and Stull, 2014;Spandre et al, 2016a, b). Also, a changing climate will likely reduce the extent of snowcovered terrain and decrease the length of the winter recreation season (Lazar and Williams, 2008;Steiger, 2010;Dawson and Scott, 2013;Marke et al, 2015;Schmucki et al, 2015;Tercek and Rodman, 2016;Marty et al, 2017). In addition to possible effects from a changing climate, inter-annual variability of snowpack patterns can be large in Colorado (Fassnacht and Hultstrand, 2015;Fassnacht and Records, 2015;Fassnacht et al, 2017).…”