Size-structured demographic models of coral populations

Artzy‐Randrup, Yael; Olinky, Ronen; Stone, Lewi

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.10.019

Cited by 13 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This follows from the hypothesis that space is a limiting resource in many marine benthic populations [66–69]. Fig 6D, 6E and 6F show that under a scenario of free-space regulation of recruitment, a mean increase of only 0.5°C can cause epidemics to double in size, while a mean rise of 1°C can cause increases scaling in orders of magnitude.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…We assume that the per capita recruitment is either: (i) “recruitment limited”—independent of local community density by assuming a constant influx of recruits per year. Alternatively, we assume recruitment is (ii) “free-space regulated”—dependent on the level of free substrate in the local patch; following from the hypothesis that this is a limiting resource in many marine benthic populations [66–69]. Here it is assumed that following a coral’s death, a healthy recruit instantaneously replaces it.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, in the second scenario (ii), the coral community density remains constant, and the role of the spatial component in the model is also expected to be relatively constant. In reality, coral recruitment is likely to lie somewhere between these two extremes, with variations in the location of different reefs along this continuum (for further reading on these assumptions, see [66–69]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2015

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Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 67%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2015

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“…Other works dealt with some branching model using parameters and variables related to some special modular coral species, 16 on the calcification phenomenon 10 or with the analysis of tropical coral populations dynamics. 2,9 Such models are rare concerning Mediterranean sessile invertebrates such as the gorgonian red coral (Corallim rubrum, L.). This emblematic and patrimonial species is heavily exploited and has been affected by mass mortality events in the summers 1999 and 2003 along the coasts of Provence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Continuous Size-Structured Red Coral Growth Model

Jabin

Lemesle²,

Aurelle³

2008

Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci.

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The aim of this paper is to derive and analyze the mathematical properties of a new continuous size-structured model for red coral (Corallium rubrum, L.) growth. Since historical Leslie models 4 are often used to deal with some ecological problems, a new approach is here proposed and give some promising results. The main advantage of using continuous model is that we hope to describe precisely the mass mortality events, observed in Mediterranean sea, and its consequences on red coral dynamics. Simulations' studies allow us to qualitatively discuss some questions about red coral populations dynamics. The development of this method should be useful for the study of the conservation of red coral populations.

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“…Nevertheless, size-structured models seem to be more relevant than age-structured models in understanding reproduction, recruitment, survival, and genetic variation in clonal organisms such as corals (Babcock 1991;Bak and Meesters 1998;Artzy-Randrup et al 2007). With the potential effects of predicted global climate change on coral reproduction (Albright 2011), baseline information on size at first maturity of corals is important to determine how these organisms would respond to a changing environment.…”

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confidence: 99%

Estimation of size at first maturity in two South African coral species

Montoya-Maya

Macdonald

Schleyer

2014

African Journal of Marine Science

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The corals Acropora austera and Platygyra daedalea have been the subject of extensive reproductive and population genetic studies in the iSimangaliso Wetland Park (iSimangaliso), on the KwaZulu-Natal coast, eastern South Africa. Despite this, estimates of size at first maturity in these two species are lacking. This information could be used to provide a baseline to differentiate juveniles from adult sizes of corals, an important factor for assessing the condition of scleractinian communities in reefs. Here, we present the methods followed to provide such estimates for these two hard corals. Using generalised linear models and assuming knife-edge maturity (50% probability), it was estimated that A. austera from iSimangaliso matures at c. 15 cm mean colony diameter (MCD) (95% CI: 9.25-20.75 cm MCD) and P. daedalea matures at c. 7 cm MCD (95% CI: 4.55-8.39 cm MCD). These estimates were comparable to those for tropical species which is remarkable considering the high-latitude nature of the sampled reefs. It is expected that the findings from this study will assist in the assessment of reproduction, recruitment, survival and genetic variation in clonal organisms such as corals, and will provide a baseline to assess the effects of climate change on coral communities in the region.

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Size-structured demographic models of coral populations

Cited by 13 publications

References 30 publications

Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

A Continuous Size-Structured Red Coral Growth Model

Estimation of size at first maturity in two South African coral species

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