Slip-rate variability and distributed deformation in the Marmara Sea fault system

Hergert, Tobias; Heidbach, Oliver

doi:10.1038/ngeo739

Cited by 88 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This is significantly less than longterm slip rates predicted for the NAF in this area [Flerit et al, 2003;Reilinger et al, 2006;Hergert and Heidbach, 2010] or from distant on-land GPS data [Ergintav et al, 2014]. If this slip deficit corresponds to a steady state behavior of the fault, it implies that the NAF is currently accumulating stress at the surface.…”

Section: 1002/2016gl069600mentioning

confidence: 81%

“…The probability of rupture of NAF segments in the central part of the Marmara Sea is considered to be significant [Murru et al, 2016;Aochi and Ulrich, 2015;Parsons, 2004], and Schmittbuhl et al [2015] recently interpreted the low level of present-day seismicity along the ISS as the signature of a locked behavior. Although Bohnhoff et al [2016] suggest that the maximum expected earthquake in the Istanbul area would probably not exceed a magnitude 7.5, geomechanical models generally predict high strain accumulation along the ISS, sufficient to produce a magnitude 7+ event [Hergert and Heidbach, 2010;Pondard et al, 2007;Armijo et al, 2005;. Conversely, Ergintav et al [2014] proposed that the ISS is aseismically creeping with strain accumulation less than 2 mm/yr, based on GPS data from distant and sparsely distributed land stations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The trace of the ISS (long dashed line) is outlined by an alignment of small sedimentary mounds. Vectors show the predicted strike-slip motion of Anatolia relative to Eurasia along the ISS by (1) Reilinger et al [2006] and (2) Hergert and Heidbach [2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major right-lateral strike-slip fault accommodating 20-27 mm/yr relative motion between the Anatolia and Eurasia Plates [e.g., Hergert and Heidbach, 2010]. Over the past century, the NAF has produced major damaging earthquakes along most of its extent, except in the Marmara Sea [e.g., Sengor et al, 2005] (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

Sakic

Piete

Ballu

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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The submarine Istanbul‐Silivri fault segment, within 15 km of Istanbul, is the only portion of the North Anatolian Fault that has not ruptured in the last 250 years. We report first results of a seafloor acoustic ranging experiment to quantify current horizontal deformation along this segment and assess whether the segment is creeping aseismically or accumulating stress to be released in a future event. Ten transponders were installed to monitor length variations along 15 baselines. A joint least squares inversion for across‐fault baseline changes, accounting for sound speed drift at each transponder, precludes fault displacement rates larger than a few millimeters per year during the 6 month observation period. Forward modeling shows that the data better fit a locked state or a very moderate surface creep—less than 6 mm/yr compared to a far‐field slip rate of over 20 mm/yr—suggesting that the fault segment is currently accumulating stress.

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Section: 1002/2016gl069600mentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

Sakic

Piete

Ballu

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In other words, either creep or a slip deficit should have been accumulating on this segment in that period. If it was unlocked, numerical models suggest its creep rate would be on the order of 12.8-17.8 mm a À 1 -a readily observable amount if appropriate GPS stations were available 19 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An earthquake gap south of Istanbul

et al. 2013

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Slip rate estimation along the western segment of the Main Marmara Fault over the last 405-490 ka by correlating mass transport deposits

et al. 2013

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High‐resolution 3‐D seismic data acquired in the Sea of Marmara on the Western High, along the northwestern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (also known as the Main Marmara Fault), shed new light on the evolution of the deformation over the last 500–600 ka. Sedimentary sequences in ponded basins are correlated with glacioeustatic cycles and transitions between marine and low sea/lake environments in the Sea of Marmara. In the 3 × 11 km2 of the 3‐D seismic survey, deformation over the last 405–490 ka is localized along the main fault branch and north of it, where N130°–N140° trending normal faults and N40°–N50° folding accommodated strike‐slip deformation associated with active argillokinesis. There is some evidence that deformation was more distributed further back in the past, at least over the depth range (<600 m below seafloor) of our survey. A N110° basin and buried ridge system were eventually cut by the presently active fault. The southern part of the basin was then uplifted, while the northern part was folded but continued to subside along the fault. A mass transport deposits complex dated between 405–490 ka shows a lateral displacement of 7.7 ± 0.3 km, corresponding to an estimated slip rate of 15.1–19.7 mm/a. We conclude that this strand of the Main Marmara Fault on the Western High has taken up most of the strike slip motion between the Anatolian and Eurasian plates over the last 405 ka at least.

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Slip-rate variability and distributed deformation in the Marmara Sea fault system

Cited by 88 publications

References 19 publications

No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

No significant steady state surface creep along the North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul: Results of 6 months of seafloor acoustic ranging

An earthquake gap south of Istanbul

Slip rate estimation along the western segment of the Main Marmara Fault over the last 405-490 ka by correlating mass transport deposits

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