Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis

Gasparrini, Antonio; Masselot, Pierre; Scortichini, Matteo; Schneider, Rochelle; Mistry, Malcolm; Sera, Francesco; Macintyre, Helen L.; Phalkey, Revati; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00138-3

Cited by 76 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In JJA, mortality risk started increasing as the temperatures increase above around 14.5 °C in Scotland. This is comparable to the temperature thresholds corresponding to the lowest mortality risk (heat threshold thereafter) in Scotland found in another study [ 29 ] but lower than previous studies in other places [ 13 , 38 , 39 ]. This indicates that the heat-health impacts can also be observed at relatively low temperatures in places with a cool climate.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Further research on the modification effects of deprivation, particularly with the interaction of age on the cold and heat effects is needed. Some previous studies found an increase in cold-and heat-related mortality risks among people in more deprived areas in England and Wales [39,70]. Higher excess winter mortality was also found in regions with higher deprivation in Scotland [51].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…It may partly be because of the acclimatisation and adaptation effect where people and society are adapted to their local climate as previous studies found higher heat thresholds in warmer places than cooler places of Europe, e.g. around 30 °C in Athens and Rome and around 20 °C in Helsinki and Stockholm [ 13 , 38 , 39 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some previous studies found an increase in cold- and heat-related mortality risks among people in more deprived areas in England and Wales [ 39 , 70 ]. Higher excess winter mortality was also found in regions with higher deprivation in Scotland [ 51 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

et al. 2022

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Background Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown. Methods This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974–2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile. Results Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect. Conclusions This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

et al. 2022

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“…In the present study, we conducted a retrospective assessment of the time-dependent non-linear and delayed associations between daily R t , retail and recreation mobility patterns, and mean ambient temperature, utilizing a cutting-edge time-series regression analytic approach of statistical modeling. Specifically, we formulated a standard time-series generalized additive model (GAM) with a gamma probability distribution family and logarithmic-link probability function, allowing for overdispersion in the observational epidemiologic data, combined with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) [ 64 ]. Briefly, the general algebraic definition of time-series statistical models is formulated as follows, with further extensions attempted:

where Y t is the outcome time series; R t is the expected time series of the daily time-dependent effective reproductive number in prefecture i on day t ; α corresponds to the overall intercept; and f G (x τ,t,i ) denotes the cross-basis function with exposure and lag effects modelled by a natural cubic spline function and a linear function of mean ambient temperature and retail and recreation mobility in prefecture i on day t, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan

Wagatsuma

Koolhof

Saito

2022

Viruses

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We assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of retail and recreation mobility (e.g., activities, going to restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers), and the number of vaccinations were collected for six prefectures in Japan from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We combined standard time-series generalized additive models (GAMs) with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to determine the exposure–lag–response association between the time-varying effective reproductive number (Rt), ambient temperature, and retail and recreation mobility, while controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Utilizing a statistical model, the first distribution of the mean ambient temperature (i.e., −4.9 °C) was associated with an 11.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9–17.7%) increase in Rt compared to the optimum ambient temperature (i.e., 18.5 °C). A retail and recreation mobility of 10.0% (99th percentile) was associated with a 19.6% (95% CI: 12.6–27.1%) increase in Rt over the optimal level (i.e., −16.0%). Our findings provide a better understanding of how ambient temperature and mobility patterns shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. These findings provide valuable epidemiological insights for public health policies in controlling disease transmission.

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The weather's no joke for people living with diabetes

Greener¹

2023

Practical Diabetes

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Climate change – presaging heat waves and cold snaps – along with drivers for global warming are likely to affect the epidemiology and management of diabetes, warns Mark Greener in his examination here of the published evidence to date. It has been shown that diabetes and climate change perpetuate each other in several ways. New literature offers detailed, thought‐provoking and worrying summaries.

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Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis

Cited by 76 publications

References 29 publications

Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan

The weather's no joke for people living with diabetes

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