2020
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3634544
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Small Business under the COVID-19 Crisis: Expected Short- and Medium-Run Effects of Anti-Contagion and Economic Policies

Abstract: This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 8 percentage points decline due to COVID-19. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum subsidies improved firms' prospects… Show more

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Cited by 14 publications
(16 citation statements)
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“…This paper is also complementary to studies of various economic aspects of the COVID-19 shocks in Japan. They include Fukui et al (2020) on the impact of pandemic on job vacancy postings, Watanabe and Omori (2020) on consumption responses across sectors, Miyakawa et al (2020) on firm default, Kawata (2020) on occupational and spatial mismatch, Kawaguchi et al (2020) on uncertainty faced by small and medium-sized firms, and Okubo (2020) on implementation of telework across occupations.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This paper is also complementary to studies of various economic aspects of the COVID-19 shocks in Japan. They include Fukui et al (2020) on the impact of pandemic on job vacancy postings, Watanabe and Omori (2020) on consumption responses across sectors, Miyakawa et al (2020) on firm default, Kawata (2020) on occupational and spatial mismatch, Kawaguchi et al (2020) on uncertainty faced by small and medium-sized firms, and Okubo (2020) on implementation of telework across occupations.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Based on a survey of areas where the spread of COVID-19 infection was significant, Yamamoto et al (2020) show that actions of self-restraint based on the declaration of a state of emergency cause psychological distress. Kawaguchi et al (2020) use data from small and medium-sized Japanese enterprises to find that, in the short term, the state of emergency reduces both feasible and expected sales. Qian and Yahara (2020) conduct a survey under the state of emergency and find that accuracy, morality, and ideology are changing people's behavior and mental health in response to COVID-19.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Societies around the world are considering whether the health benefits of these anti-contagion policies are worth their social and economic costs. Many of these costs are clearly observed; for example, business restrictions increase unemployment and school closures affect educational outcomes, which also elicites resistance from these affected groups of people [ 10 , 11 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%