Smallholder commercialization and climate change: a simulation game for teff in South Wollo, Ethiopia

Abstract

Replicable Business Models (RBMs) focus on reducing economic coordination, opportunism, and price risks but pay less attention to risks from natural shocks. A simulation game was designed to capture the impact of variable rainfall on teff production and commercialization in South Wollo Zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. The game captured farmers' decision-making for three rainfall scenarios and three levels of market prices. The results showed that variable rainfall had little impact on the levels of teff production or commercialization. The exception was the scenario where rainfall failed in both crop seasons; however, the probability of this scenario was low. If rains failed in the first wet season (Belg) or if rains in the second and main wet season (Meher) were late, farmers maintained teff production by increasing the area planted and the share of teff that received inorganic fertilizer. Resource constraintsparticularly shortage of landlimited farmers' production of teff. Despite these constraints, the simulation revealed that farmers will increase teff sales in response to higher prices. The risk simulation game provides a diagnostic tool to evaluate the performance of the RBM and the potential for smallholder commercialization in the face of natural shocks.

Lessons on enabling African smallholder farmers, especially women and youth, to benefit from sustainable agricultural intensification

“…The next essential determinant for enabling SAI environments is the access to information and resources. Digital information services, such as the ones tested by Ortiz-Crespo et al (2020) and Silvestri et al (2020), aim to use the power of ICTs to enhance farmers' access to information, and extension services, while access to improved and certified seed can be enhanced by innovative supply systems (Orr et al, 2020).…”

“…Access to inputs is an equally important enabling factor for SAI. Orr et al (2020) present the design of a revolving seed fund as a SAI-enabling service for Teff farmers to enhance access of certified seed. By a simulation game, they confirm the robustness of such business model against natural shocks (i.e.…”

Understanding and informing decisions on Sustainable Agricultural Intensification in Sub-Saharan Africa

“…Effective use of combinations of communications media can contribute to increased knowledge and uptake of practices by farmers (Silvestri et al, 2020). Environmental and economic risks also affect effectiveness of services, which can be revealed by games that test different scenarios (Orr et al, 2020).…”

Commercialization of Teff production in West North Ethiopia

“…From agriculture, cereal crop production, and marketing play a central role contributes about 30% of the national GDP [3]. Cereal grains are the single most important source of calories to a majority of the world population, developing countries (60%) and developed countries (30%) [4]. In Ethiopia, it covers the highest percentage in terms of its area coverage (80.71%) and volume of production (87.48%) than other crops in the country [5].…”