Snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM) for integrated use in regional scale landslide early warning systems

Abstract

Abstract. We propose a simple snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM) to be applied at regional scale in conjunction with landslide warning systems based on empirical rainfall thresholds.SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a conservation of mass equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation for the snow density. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimisation algorithm (simplex flexible) using calibration measures of snowpack thickness.From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing about the additional benefit of a relatively easy implementation.After performing a cross validation and a comparison with two simpler temperature index models, we simulated an operational employment in a regional scale landslide early warning system (EWS) and we found that the EWS forecasting effectiveness was substantially improved when used in conjunction with SAMM.

Assessing the potential of soil moisture measurements for regional landslide early warning

“…Antecedent water conditions and the prewetting of the slope at depth cannot be reflected fully (Godt et al 2009) and critical antecedent rainfall amounts can vary considerably between different soils and even throughout the year (Aleotti 2004;Baum and Godt 2010;Napolitano et al 2016). Finally, snow melt cannot be accounted for by pure rainfall thresholds (Cardinali et al 2000;Martelloni et al 2013).…”

Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau

“…Snow has less impact on animal husbandry in developed countries due to better infrastructure in grassland and livestock industry, in which the studying emphasis has been particularly focused on risk assessment and early warning of traffic, landslides and avalanches related to heavy snowfall events (Jones and Jamieson, 2001;Williamson et al, 2002;Martelloni et al, 2013;Mercogliano et al, 2013;Rossi et al, 2013). As for snow disasters in pastoral areas in China, the emphasis has been placed on monitoring the change of snow distribution and livestock loss evaluation post-disasters.…”

“…The dynamic change of snow cover area (SCA) has great influence on the surface albedo, climate change, hydrological circulation and energy balance, as well as social economy and ecological environment (Robock et al, 1980;Blöschl et al, 1991;Pulliainen et al, 2006;Lemke et al, 2007;Martelloni et al, 2013). In pastoral areas, a great deal of snowfall often leads to grassland being buried and transportation disruption, resulting in a large number of deaths of livestock due to lower temperature and lack of forage stock.…”

Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall‐induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall

“…This study evaluates the effect of varying the rainfall record length, the primary data input, on two different threshold selection techniques. However, other investigations demonstrate that improved threshold performance may be achieved by considering additional sources of water on slopes, such as by snow melt or surface flow (Meyer et al, ; Martelloni et al, ; Søren et al, ), and by using more sophisticated variables of effective precipitation due to evaporation and evapotranspiration (Dixon and Brook, ; Dijkstra and Dixon, ). In addition, further enhancements may be achieved by developing independent thresholds for sub‐domains that are based on the spatial distribution of different slope lithologies that are associated with landslide occurrence (Segoni et al, ).…”