Social contagion and adolescent sexual behavior: A developmental EMOSA model.

Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Rowe, David C.

doi:10.1037/0033-295x.100.3.479

Cited by 86 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…They did not show that the data ruled out the simpler model. Rodgers and Rowe (1993), in their study of teenage sexual behavior, fit two different models making somewhat different assumptions. Although "both models were consistent with the data according to chi-square tests" (p. 495), Rodgers and Rowe favored one of them.…”

Section: Defenses Of the Use Of Good Fits As Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

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How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing.

Roberts

Pashler²

2000

Psychological Review

765

668

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Quantitative theories with free parameters often gain credence when they closely fit data. This is a mistake. A good fit reveals nothing about the flexibility of the theory (how much it cannot fit), the variability of the data (how firmly the data rule out what the theory cannot fit), or the likelihood of other outcomes (perhaps the theory could have fit any plausible result), and a reader needs all 3 pieces of information to decide how much the fit should increase belief in the theory. The use of good fits as evidence is not supported by philosophers of science nor by the history of psychology; there seem to be no examples of a theory supported mainly by good fits that has led to demonstrable progress. A better way to test a theory with free parameters is to determine how the theory constrains possible outcomes (i.e., what it predicts), assess how firmly actual outcomes agree with those constraints, and determine if plausible alternative outcomes would have been inconsistent with the theory, allowing for the variability of the data.Many quantitative psychological theories with free parameters are supported mainly or entirely by demonstrations that they can fit data-that the parameters can be adjusted so that the output of the theory resembles actual results. The similarity is often shown by a graph with two functions: one labeled observed (or data) and the other labeled predicted (or theory or simulated). That the theory fits data is supposed to show that the theory should be taken seriously-should be published, for example. This type of argument is common; judging from a search of Psychological Abstracts , the research literature probably contains thousands of examples. Early instances involved sensory processes (Hecht, 1931) and animal learning (Hull, 1943), but this reasoning is now used in many areas. Here are three examples.1. Cohen, Dunbar, and McClelland (1990) proposed a parallel distributed processing model to explain the Stroop effect and related data. The model was meant to embody a "continuous" view of automaticity, in contrast to an "all-or-none" view (Cohen et al.,

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Section: Defenses Of the Use Of Good Fits As Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rodgers and Rowe (1993) proposed a theory that explains how teenagers come to engage in various sexual behaviors for the first time. It emphasizes contact with other teenagers--a "contagion" (p. 479) explanation.…”

Section: How Persuasive Is a Good Fit?mentioning

confidence: 99%

How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing.

Roberts

Pashler²

2000

Psychological Review

765

668

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“…Finally, if 0 > 1 and 1 < 1 and 2 > ℎ 2 , then there is coexistence of two locally asymptotically stable equilibria, * and + ℎ , such that the stability of these equilibrium points depends on the initial condition of system (15) (see Figure 9). In contrast to model (1), when 0 is chosen as a bifurcation parameter, model (15) has the crime-free equilibrium 0 given by (16), which indicates the possibility of the forward bifurcation ( Figure 10). If 0 < 1, then the crimefree equilibrium 0 of system (15) is locally asymptotically stable; if 0 > 1, 0 becomes unstable and * is locally asymptotically stable if 1 < 1.…”

Section: High-criminality Equilibriummentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Now consider the resulting model (15). The local stability of the low-criminality equilibrium , which is examined by linearizing system (15) around , is governed by the Jacobian matrix …”

Section: Low-criminality Equilibriummentioning

confidence: 99%

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Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies

Raimundo

Yang

Massad

2018

Journal of Applied Mathematics

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We provide a theoretical framework to study how criminal behaviors can be treated as an infectious phenomenon. There are two infectious diseases like models that mimic the role of convicted criminals in contaminating individuals not yet engaged in the criminal career. Equilibrium analyses of each model are studied in detail. The models proposed in this work include the social, economic, personal, and pressure from peers aspects that can, theoretically, determine the probability with which a susceptible individual with criminal propensity engages in a criminal career. These crime-inducing parameters are treated mathematically and their inclusion in the model aims to help policy-makers design crime control strategies. We propose, to the best of our knowledge by the first time in quantitative criminology, the existence of thresholds for the stability of crime-endemic equilibrium which are the equivalent to the "basic reproduction number" widely used in the mathematical epidemiology literature. Both models presented the phenomena of backward bifurcation and breaking-point when the contact rates are chosen as bifurcation parameters. The finding of backward bifurcation in both models implies that there is an endemic equilibrium of criminality even when the threshold parameter for contagion is below unit, which, in turn, implies that control strategies are more difficult to achieve considerable impact on crime control.

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Behavior Genetics and Adolescent Development: A Review of Recent Literature

Rodgers¹,

Bard²

2006

Blackwell Handbook of Adolescence

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Social contagion and adolescent sexual behavior: A developmental EMOSA model.

Cited by 86 publications

References 66 publications

How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing.

How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing.

Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies

Behavior Genetics and Adolescent Development: A Review of Recent Literature

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