Social-ecological change in the Omo-Turkana basin: A synthesis of current developments

Abstract

This paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impacts of the Gibe III dam and associated large-scale commercial farming in the Omo-Turkana Basin, based on an expert elicitation coupled with a scoping review and the collective knowledge of an multidisciplinary network of researchers with active data-collection programs in the Basin. We use social-ecological systems and political ecology frameworks to assess the impacts of these interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in the Basin, and cascading effects on livelihoods, patterns of migration, and conflict dynamics for the people of the region. A landscape-scale transformation is occurring in which commodities, rather than staple foods for local consumption, are becoming the main output of the region. Mitigation measures initiated by the Ethiopian government—notably resettlement schemes—are not adequately buffering affected communities from food insecurity following disruption to indigenous livelihood systems. Therefore, while benefits are accruing to labor migrants, the costs of development are currently borne primarily by the agro–pastoralist indigenous people of the region. We consider measures that might maximize benefits from the changes underway and mitigate their negative outcomes, such as controlled floods, irrigating fodder crops, food aid, and benefit sharing. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1139-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Integrating Participatory Methods and Remote Sensing to Enhance Understanding of Ecosystem Service Dynamics Across Scales

“…The most recent developments are the Gilgel-Gibe III (hereafter 'Gibe III') dam, Africa's tallest, inaugurated in 2016, and the establishment of irrigated sugar estates, begun in 2013 and covering a projected 100,000 hectares (ha) as well as largescale cotton schemes [42], in addition to population growth and migration. There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of these social-ecological changes, as there has been relatively little study from the scientific community thus far [43][44][45][46][47]. However, prior work by [46] concluded that the Gibe III dam is posited to impact multiple ES and thus the livelihoods of the Lower Omo communities, mostly through loss of the seasonal flood.…”

“…There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of these social-ecological changes, as there has been relatively little study from the scientific community thus far [43][44][45][46][47]. However, prior work by [46] concluded that the Gibe III dam is posited to impact multiple ES and thus the livelihoods of the Lower Omo communities, mostly through loss of the seasonal flood. The affected ES can be summarized in three categories.…”

“…Firstly, provisioning ES, which are likely to increase overall given the hydropower and irrigation developments supported by the Gibe III (the latter due to original plans to increase production of commodity crops like cotton and sugar). However, the loss of flood retreat cultivation will likely decrease provisioning ES related to staple foodstuffs [46] and decreased quality of riverine forest will reduce the availability of wild foodstuffs and raw materials for construction materials, fuel, fodder, and medicinal resources for indigenous populations [46]. Similarly, changes in availability of and access to water and dry season grazing may have negatively influenced the rearing of animals in the Lower Omo, reducing the provisioning ES related to animal products [46].…”

“…However, the loss of flood retreat cultivation will likely decrease provisioning ES related to staple foodstuffs [46] and decreased quality of riverine forest will reduce the availability of wild foodstuffs and raw materials for construction materials, fuel, fodder, and medicinal resources for indigenous populations [46]. Similarly, changes in availability of and access to water and dry season grazing may have negatively influenced the rearing of animals in the Lower Omo, reducing the provisioning ES related to animal products [46]. Secondly, regulating ES will be affected by reduced peak flows and flooding, which will influence water quality and quantity.…”

“…Secondly, regulating ES will be affected by reduced peak flows and flooding, which will influence water quality and quantity. The regulation of the river may negatively affect nutrient flow and availability, reducing soil fertility [46]. The constricted seasonal variation and loss of seasonal flooding is also expected to reduce access to the fertile dry season riverbank flats and restrict the natural clearance of wild riparian vegetation.…”