Social foundation of scenario planning

Rowland, Nicholas J.; Spaniol, Matthew J.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.02.013

Cited by 31 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Collaborative or participative scenario development, as most commonly conducted in scenario workshops, attempts to include and unite multiple contradicting views [3,123], but it hardly assures that all views are represented equally. Rather, this aspect may be regarded as a negotiating process where different views compete for consideration [134]. This view is in line with social constructionist perspectives which conceptualize the emergence of images of the future as the result of a social negotiation process [53,153].…”

Section: Execution Of Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…1). After the scenario development process in the narrow sense is completed, the determined scenarios feed into the further scenario use phase [134], i.e., the organization's strategy process, namely strategy development and, later, execution [110]. Apart from employing scenario techniques, organizations can also consider externally given scenarios such as those offered by Atherton for small businesses [6].…”

Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Tiberius

2019

Eur J Futures Res

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This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory's specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users' specific intentions.

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Section: Execution Of Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 57%

Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Tiberius

2019

Eur J Futures Res

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“…Scenario-planning skills are applied in different ways across five scenario-planning processes: environmental scanning, scenario building, scenarios, contextual sharing and dissemination, and active monitoring (Balarezo and Nielsen, 2017). Scenario planning may take place chronologically, but with iterations or recurrences of some of the phases (Rowland and Spaniol, 2017).…”

Section: Formal and Informal Skills In Scenario-planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: an assessment of corporate reasoning

Lew

Meyerowitz

Svensson

2019

JBIM

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Purpose -The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The research objective is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Design/Methodology/Approach -An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context. Findings -The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning. Research limitations/implications -Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications -The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context. Originality/value -This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability, and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario planning in strategic decision-making.

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“…IL values plausibility as a measure of rigor, whereas other schools of scenario thinking, such as la prospective and probabilistic modified trends, are based on preferred futures and probable futures, respectively (Ramírez & Wilkinson, ). Scenario planning in the IL literature is frequently depicted as a sequence of stages, phases, or steps (Ramírez & Selin, ; Rowland & Spaniol, ). To wit, Figure is a typical scenario planning process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining scenario

Spaniol

Rowland

2018

Futures & Foresight Science

Self Cite

115

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Scholars claim that futures and foresight science should overcome “confusion” regarding the definition of core concepts, for example, the scenario. Admittedly, defining scenario has been a challenge. Current practice, which results in repeated attempts to clarify said confusion with yet another new definition of scenario, has apparently not advanced the field. An alternative option is not to redefine scenario, but to, instead, create a shared definition composed of component parts of pre‐existing definitions. The result is an operant or synthesized definition based on analysis of claims indicating what “a scenario is…” and “scenarios are…” in the literature on scenario planning. The authors find that scenarios have a temporal property rooted in the future and reference external forces in that context; scenarios should be possible and plausible while taking the proper form of a story or narrative description; and that scenarios exist in sets that are systematically prepared to coexist as meaningful alternatives to one another. Despite claims to the contrary, the authors find that the academic community of futures and foresight science does not seem to suffer from so‐called confusion over the definition of scenario, and thus, it is time to sunset the use of claims to this end.

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Social foundation of scenario planning

Cited by 31 publications

References 33 publications

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: an assessment of corporate reasoning

Defining scenario

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