Kalimantan (53,300 km 2 ) (Figure 1b and Extended Data Figure 3) and more recently Papua (2,100 km 2 ) (Figure 1c and Extended Data Figure 4). In Sumatra, the extent of oil palm plantations nearly doubled since 2000, while Kalimantan and Papua experienced a near-fourfold increase in production area over the same period (Figure 1 and Extended Data Figures 2-4). The three regions can be viewed as being at advanced, intermediate, and early stages of oil palm development, respectively. These distinct development stages are broadly reflective of the expansion of the crop pan-tropically. For example, Malaysia and Thailand are also at an advanced stage of oil palm development, while the industry is still in its infancy across Latin America 1 .The developmental context in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua is also reflected in patterns of plantation ownership. In Indonesia, cultivation of more than 25 hectares of croplands by a single farmer or entity requires a concession permit (Izin Usaha Perkebunan or IUP), issued by the head of a regency, mayor, or governor (Ministerial Decree No. 98/Permentan/2013). In Sumatra, between 2000 and 2018, oil palm plantations (i.e. planted oil palm) are largely dominated by non-concession holders (64% for NCONC), which mostly represent smallholders (68%) and medium to large-scale industrial plantations with unknown concession status (32%, Supplementary Figure 1). There, the rate of plantation expansion outside of known concession boundaries (NCONC) has exceeded that within large-scale concessions, i.e., non-certified industrial oil palm plantations (CONC) and RSPO-certified industrial plantations (CERT) (Figure 1a and Extended Data Figure 2). Conversely, over the same period, large-scale industrial plantations have dominated oil palm expansion in Kalimantan and Papua (66% for CONC and CERT combined in Kalimantan and 69% for CONC in Papua) (Figures 1b-c and Extended Data Figures 3-4).Analysis of the primary land-use or cover in villages between 2000 and 2018 indicates that those with ≥10% of village land area under industrial oil palm plantation in 2018 but <10% of area in industrial oil palm in 2000 experienced a typical sequence of land-use prior to oil palm development (Figure 2a and Extended Data Figure 5). In 2000, 23% of these villages were primarily forested, and timber was frequently commercially harvested 38 resulting in degraded forest stands. These villages were then transformed to agricultural lands, mixed plantations and shrubs, then to (non-certified) industrial oil palm plantations. Some of the existing (non-certified) oil palm plantations were later granted RSPO certification. Conversion from forest to certified plantations had rarely occurred (Extended Data Figure 5).Each of these land-uses is associated with specific livelihood systems and community composition (i.e. ethnicity) within village boundaries defined in the PODES census. Based on data from 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2018 across villages in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua, those villages with high natural forest cover...