Socio-economic benefits of the improvement of transport accessibility to the port of Szczecin

Bernacki, Dariusz; Lis, Christian

doi:10.18276/epu.2016.124-05

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…To prepare forecasts of the cargo throughput in Polish seaports, regression models of the cargo throughput about the GDP were applied in the following general form (Bernacki and Lis 2019): GDPt-the observations of the GDP over period t; i i , 0 1   -the structural parameters of the regression model for the j-th cargo group; and ti  -the random component of the model over period t for the j-th cargo group.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Cargo Throughput for Small and Medium-sized Ports: Multi-stage Approach with Reference to the Multi-port System

Bernacki¹,

Lis²

2021

ERSJ

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Purpose:The paper aims to elaborate on long-term throughput forecasts in Small and Medium-Sized ports (SMPs). The research problem relates to determining a method that is relevant for the long-term transhipment forecasting in SMPs. Design/Methodology/Approach: Research was applied to the Polish ports system consisting of three major ports (Gdańsk, Gdynia, and Świnoujście) and the minor port of Szczecin. Forecasts for the cargo groups in the major ports were produced using regression models where the model parameters were estimated with the Ordinary Least Squares Method. The obtained forecasts of the throughput of cargo groups in major Polish seaports were converted into dynamics indices. The resulting matrices of the cargo throughput dynamics indices established for the leading Polish seaports were used to prepare cargo throughput forecasts for the port of Szczecin. Findings: Elaborated throughput forecasts indicate that, in the future, the port in Szczecin will retain its universal character, and a moderate increase in the cargo volumes confirms that it will serve as a complementary port to the major ports in the range. The forecasted modal split of hinterland transport indicates the increasing importance of road transport, and a decreased rail and inland waterway transport to/from the hinterland. That is likely due to a lower cargo throughput and difficulties in organizing the rail and inland waterway corridors based on smaller freight volumes. Practical implications:The study provides a practical tool for long-term throughput and hinterland traffic forecasting in SMPs. It is addressed to port authorities as the method may be used in decision-making on capacity expansion and academics exploring the phenomenon of predictions in maritime transport. Originality/Values: The novel method of demand forecasting in SMPs includes relations between major and minor ports in the range and multi-staged validation of results. Research advances studies on the dynamics of multi-port systems.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Cargo Throughput for Small and Medium-sized Ports: Multi-stage Approach with Reference to the Multi-port System

Bernacki¹,

Lis²

2021

ERSJ

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“…Parameters are estimated due to ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator but for a linearized form. The daily shipping cost models with estimates can be written as follows: [69]:…”

Section: Daily and Unit Shipping Cost Of Dry Bulk And Container Cargomentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Sustainable Impact of Seaport Infrastructure Provision on Maritime Component of Supply Chain

Bernacki

Lis

2021

Energies

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The aim of the research is to identify and quantify the direct economic effects resulting from the improved seaport nautical access and capacity expansion. This case study considers a regional port located in the Baltic sea and relates to port users, i.e., shipping operators and shippers. The effects were identified for maritime transport by comparing transport performance in two scenarios: with-the-investment and without-the-investment. Incremental calculus addresses freights (containers, dry bulk, and cereals) traded to and from the given port, changes in size of vessels, and the shipping route alternatives vis-a-vis adjacent ports in the range. Sustainable impact concerns generalized maritime transport cost, i.e., shipping operating costs and port-to-port transit time, as well as energy consumption and external costs of maritime shipping. To capture effects, daily and unit dry bulk, as well as container shipping cost, values of time, and marginal external costs were revealed in freight sea transport. As investigated, shipping operators and shippers will benefit from the reduction in ships’ operating (including ships’ fuel cost savings) and time cost, while the community will enjoy the reduction in externalities. However, the main economic effect is the reduction in shipping operating cost resulting from the increased vessel size (economies of scale).

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Assessing the Link between Vessel Size and Maritime Supply Chain Sustainable Performance

Bernacki

2021

Energies

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This study determines the relationship between the increase in size of dry bulk carriers and container ships and the changes in sustainable shipping performance. It measures the elasticities of shipping costs for bulk carriers and container ships. Using regression, it derives the functions of the daily and unit costs of shipping with respect to the size of dry bulk carriers and container ships. The estimated daily and unit cost elasticities and cost models reveal significant but diversified impacts of vessel size on dry bulk and container shipping cost and its components, other operating capital, and fuel costs. Findings: Dry bulk carriers and containership size mean elasticities of daily operating costs estimates respectively: total operating costs 0.291 and 0.552, other operating cost (labor cost included) 0.238 and 0.328, capital costs 0.329 and 0.765, fuel costs 0.289 and 0.462; dry bulker and container ship unit shipping mean elasticity respectively: full operating costs (−0.751) and (−0.553), other operating cost (−0.804) and (−0.782), capital costs (−0.713) and (−0.399), fuel costs (–0.757) and (−0.702). This research provides an insight into the impact of technology and the way the services are provided (irregular versus regular) on shipping cost and energy savings. The cost models can be used for estimating the savings in shipping costs resulting from handling larger vessels in seaports.

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Socio-economic benefits of the improvement of transport accessibility to the port of Szczecin

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Forecasting the Cargo Throughput for Small and Medium-sized Ports: Multi-stage Approach with Reference to the Multi-port System

Forecasting the Cargo Throughput for Small and Medium-sized Ports: Multi-stage Approach with Reference to the Multi-port System

Investigating the Sustainable Impact of Seaport Infrastructure Provision on Maritime Component of Supply Chain

Assessing the Link between Vessel Size and Maritime Supply Chain Sustainable Performance

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