Abstract:Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies 14 control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas.
15Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation.
16We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys and school-based surveys to determine 17 which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28
22inaccurate estimates, possible due to low sample size. Transect data were subsequently used to 23 develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We 24 predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000-3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average 25 human: dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential be applied to predicting dog 26 population size in other districts where mass dog vaccination is carried out, given census and 27 livelihood data. We recommend transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population 28 estimates across large geographic areas and guide dog vaccination programs.
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