Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

Abstract

Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters' data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.

Inter-Hour Forecast of Solar Radiation Based on the Structural Equation Model and Ensemble Model

“…In this paper, the factors discussed are mostly based on surface stations; the solar radiation data refer to the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for photovoltaic power plants, with the aim of serving power prediction and grid connection of photovoltaic power stations. Because of the rotation of the Earth around its axis and around the Sun, the solar radiation has daily and annual cycles [25][26][27]. Therefore, the solar zenith angle was selected to represent the daily cycle of solar radiation, and the solar azimuth angle and the day of the year were chosen to represent the annual cycle.…”

Recent Approaches of Forecasting and Optimal Economic Dispatch to Overcome Intermittency of Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) Systems: A Review

“…Reference [77] presented a very comprehensive solar irradiation forecasting analysis by computing Global Horizontal Solar Irradiation (GHI) and annual Direct Normal Solar Irradiation (DNI) probability density functions. Annual DNI and GHI distributions were defined through WD and normal distribution functions, respectively.…”

Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting Using a Volterra-Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model Combined with Signal Decomposition

“…It is therefore very important to develop effective solar radiation forecasting methods, especially ones that can use less measurements. Solar radiation sequences can be treated as a time series produced by random processes; therefore, mathematical models can be used to fit the underlying processes and forecast the future values [4,5]. Many modeling methods have been used to describe solar radiation sequences, including regression methods such as linear regression [4], autoregressive model (AR) [6], autoregressive moving average (ARMA) [7], multi-dimensional linear prediction filters [8], least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) [9], and nonlinear model approximators such as artificial neural network (ANN) [10], adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system [11], hidden Markov model [12], fuzzy logic [13] and Angstrom-Prescott equations [14].…”