Solar variability manifestations in weather and climate characteristics

Жеребцов, Г. А.; Kovalenko, V. A.; Molodykh, S. I.; Kirichenko, K. E.

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.12.003

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This paper aims at supplementing the previous work of Cliver, Boriakoff and Feynman (1998);Pulkkinen et al (2001); Mufti and Shah (2011); Zherebtsov et al (2019) by taking seriously into account both observations: the nearly perfect correlation of solar activity with temperature over about 150 years, and the notable divergence between those quantities during the last two decades. Using a multiple regression analysis, quite similar to that of Soon, Posmentier and Baliunas (1996), but with the time series of the aa-index as the second independent variable (in addition to the logarithm of CO 2 concentration), we will show that the temperature variation since the middle of the 19th century can be reproduced with an (adjusted) 2 value around 87 per cent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Multiple regression analysis of anthropogenic and heliogenic climate drivers, and some cautious forecasts

Stefani

2021

Preprint

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The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as a proxy for solar activity, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19th century with an adjusted 2 value of around 87 per cent for a climate sensitivity (of TCR type) in the range of 0.6 K until 1.6 K per doubling of CO 2 . The solution of the regression is quite sensitive: when including data from the last decade, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño on one side and low aa-values on the other side lead to a preponderance of solutions with relatively high climate sensitivities around 1.6 K. If those later data are excluded, the regression leads to a significantly higher weight of the aa-index and a correspondingly lower climate sensitivity going down to 0.6 K. The plausibility of such low values is discussed in view of recent experimental and satellite-borne measurements. We argue that a further decade of data collection will be needed to allow for a reliable distinction between low and high sensitivity values. Based on recent ideas about a quasi-deterministic planetary synchronization of the solar dynamo, we make a first attempt to predict the aa-index and the resulting temperature anomaly for various typical CO 2 scenarios. Even for the highest climate sensitivities, and an unabated linear CO 2 increase, we predict only a mild additional temperature rise of around 1 K until the end of the century, while for the lower values an imminent temperature drop in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is prognosticated.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Multiple regression analysis of anthropogenic and heliogenic climate drivers, and some cautious forecasts

Stefani

2021

Preprint

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“…However, under the technical conditions of those scholars at that time, the possibility that ultraviolet light and magnetized plasma output from solar activity were important contributors to climate change could not be ruled out [10]. Actually, there have recently been many scholars who have noted that solar activity could drive the long-wave radiation flux to high latitude regions of the Earth, which increases the temperature of atmosphere and world's oceans [11]. Additionally, high-energy electrons released by solar activity will further destroy stratospheric ozone, further enhancing ultraviolet radiation to the Earth's surface and raising atmospheric temperatures.…”

Section: Temperature Channelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Star Wars? Space Weather and Electricity Market: Evidence from China

You

Gong

et al. 2021

Energies

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of space weather on China’s electricity market. Based on data products provided by NOAA and the National Energy Administration in China, this paper uses solar wind velocity as a solar weather indicator and the disturbance storm time index as a magnetospheric weather indicator to match monthly Chinese electricity market data over 10 years. Based on a VAR model, we found that (1) space weather increases the demand for electricity in China, and solar wind speed and the geomagnetic index increase the electricity consumption of the whole of Chinese society, as space weather mainly increases the electricity consumption of the secondary and industrial sectors. (2) The geomagnetic index significantly promotes power station revenue. (3) Space weather is associated with increased energy consumption. The geomagnetic index significantly increases the coal consumption rate of fossil power plants in China, but the solar wind speed has nothing to do with the coal consumption rate of fossil power plants.

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“…However, Laptukhov and Laptukhov (2010, 2015) indicate that in the long time history the solar activity rather than human activity plays the determining role in the observed climate warming; especially an increase in the global near‐surface air temperature is accompanied by increase in the carbon dioxide amount in the atmosphere due to its evaporation from the seawater, not by human beings. Recently, Zherebtsov et al (2019) pointed out that the global warming in the 21st century has dramatically slowed down, almost stopped based on the sea surface temperature, whereas the concentration of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing, although solar and geomagnetic activities have noticeably weakened over the last decade. Moreover, in the sequence of papers, Veretenenko and Ogurtsov (2018, 2019, 2020) show that the long‐term variations of TSI may be a possible cause of ~60‐year oscillations of global temperature anomalies and the corresponding changes of the circulation regime in the lower and middle atmosphere.…”

Section: On Relationship Of the Near‐surface Air Temperature And Sola...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In spite of much effort in many studies, unfortunately, there are not found any objective reasons of these changes; however in different publications one can find the discussion about the roles of the solar activities and/or human activities in these processes [e.g. Solomon, et al, 2019;Zherebtsov, et al, 2019;Booth, 2018;Dorman, 2016;2004]. During the ~last half century, it is observed an increase in global temperature which causes the extensive discussion devoted to air temperature trends in the context of global warming [e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study of a global warming effect (centenary changes of air temperature T) is one of the greatest mankind's problem at present. In spite of much effort in many studies, unfortunately, there are not found any objective reasons of these changes; however, in different publications one can find the discussion about the roles of the solar activities and/or human activities in these processes (e.g., Booth, 2018;Dorman, 2004Dorman, , 2016Solomon et al, 2019;Zherebtsov et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

Modzelewska

Alania

Kapanadze³

et al. 2020

Earth and Space Science

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Analyses of near-surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781-2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881-2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881-2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT =~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT =~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about~70 years (1890-1960), when correlation coefficients between 11-year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66 ± 0.07 and r = 0.73 ± 0.07 for Poland and r = 0.82 ± 0.05 and r = 0.90 ± 0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781-1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881-2016. We recognize a few feeble~20 ± 3 years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885-1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of~7-8 years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Solar variability manifestations in weather and climate characteristics

Cited by 11 publications

References 22 publications

Multiple regression analysis of anthropogenic and heliogenic climate drivers, and some cautious forecasts

Multiple regression analysis of anthropogenic and heliogenic climate drivers, and some cautious forecasts

Star Wars? Space Weather and Electricity Market: Evidence from China

Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016

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