Some problems of transition to post-industrial development in the Siberian region

Abstract

Some problems of transition to post-industrial development in the Siberian region Irkutsk Oblast of the Russian Federation is usually regarded as an industrial region. Its economy is oriented predominantly at extracting industries (coal, gas, iron ore, gold, salt, mica, timber cutting, hydropower) and first stages of processing (including petrochemicals and aluminium using imported raw materials). The principle proprietors (earlier sectoral ministries, now trans-national corporations) have their headquarters very far from Siberia and their interests are rather alien to the region. In fact, such a picture makes even the given definition ("industrial region") somehow doubtful and too optimistic. However, it can be said that we deal here with an early stage of industrialization, far from post-industrial development. Still, all this does not mean that such functions as science, education, or culture do not exist here. They do exist but are not used as "locomotives" of regional economy. In the last several years, the authors of the report have taken part in investigations and discussions on strategic planning of regional development in Irkutsk Oblast for the first half of the 21 st century. Three scenarios were analyzed in details. One of them, the conservative one, is based on the existing trends of development. It means that further development of the region will be resource oriented (power, aluminum, timber, etc.) as it has been for decades and even for centuries. This scenario is the least efficient and promising but it requires minimum efforts from the regional administration. The second scenario is called "New Industrialization". It includes restructuring the regional industry through extending natural resources processing. That is, producing aluminum alloys and products instead of raw aluminum, or plywood and furniture instead of timber. This variant is the most balanced but at the same time rather risky from the environmental point of view. The third scenario is based on the idea of transition to post-industrial economics. It means the leading role of services in the development of the regional economy. In this variant, the role of the intellectual activity grows immensely. While modern industrial technologies in today's world come usually from remote global centres, in the sphere of services it is impossible. For example, the development of the most promising tourist sector requires taking into account the unique specificity of the local system of the geographic position, climate,