The article discusses the cluster approach to the regional economic development. It describes the method of creating a spatially localized recreational cluster. The method for calculating the integral indicator of clustering has been improved. The indicators of recreational development have been added to the group of regional economic development indicators. To assess the correctness of the results, the integral indicator for assessing the regional socio-economic development has been calculated by the multifactor ranking method. It involves the calculation of the Euclidean metric, which shows the deviation of the integral indicator from the standard. The main risks of spatially localized recreational clusters have been identified.

1 Байкальский государственный университет, г. Иркутск, Российская Федерация 2 Иркутский государственный университет путей сообщения, г. Иркутск, Российская Федерация Информация о статье Дата поступления 15 февраля 2019 г. Дата принятия к печати 12 марта 2019 г. Дата онлайн-размещения 4 апреля 2019 г. Ключевые слова Регион; социальноэкономические показатели; управление; пространственный подход; конкуренция АннотацияИсследуется социально-экономическая деятельность региона на примере Иркутской области. Проведенный анализ динамики ее основных социально-экономических показателей выявил важные особенности территориальной структуры области. Сделан вывод, что при формировании направлений подготовки стратегии развития региона необходимо применение пространственного подхода. Экспертные оценки показали, что для региона характерен очень высокий уровень экологического риска, соответственно, следует внедрять меры, связанные с экологизацией экономической структуры как разновидностью диверсификации. Территориально регион предлагается разнонаправлено развивать с учетом выявленных особенностей. Южная сторона перспективна для развития туристско-рекреационного потенциала и сферы услуг, поскольку имеет соответствующую инфраструктуру и ресурсы. Реализация этого направления требует значительных инвестиций, однако они достаточно быстро окупаются в сравнении с инвестициями в развитие промышленности. Что касается северной части территории региона, то наличие значительных природных ресурсов создает перспективу для интенсификации внедрения инновационных технологий в добывающую промышленность. Расширение практики использования данного направления возможно за счет перспективного развития научной и образовательной деятельности. AbstractThe socio-economic activity of the region is studied using the Irkutsk region as an example. The analysis of the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators revealed important features of its territorial structure. In order to implement the assessment and qualitative analysis to form the directions of preparation of the regional development strategy, it was proposed to apply a spatial approach, taking into account all of the above. Expert assessments have shown that the region has a very high environmental risk, so it is necessary to introduce measures related to the greening of the economic structure as a kind of diversification. Geographically, the region is proposed to develop in different directions, taking into account the identified features. The southern part is promising for the implementation of tourism and recreational potential and services, as it has appropriate infrastructure and resources. The implementation of this direction requires significant investment, but it pays off quickly in РЕГИОНАЛЬНОЕ И ОТРАСЛЕВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ REGIONAL AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

The article considers the correspondence of the step-by-step smoothing method as one of the possible algorithms for short-term forecasting of statistics of equal-current measurements of monotone functions, which represent the values of the determining parameters that evaluate the dynamics of the states of complex technical systems based on the operating time. The true value of the monitored parameter is considered unknown, and the processed measurement values are distributed normally. The measurements are processed by step-by-step smoothing. As a result of processing, a new statistic is formed, which is a forecast statistic, each value of which is a half-sum of the measurement itself and the so-called private forecast. First, the forecasts obtained in this way prove to have the same distribution law as the distribution law of a sample of equally accurate measurements. Second, the forecast trend should be the same as the measurement trend and correspond to the theoretical trend, that is, the true values of the monotone function. Third, the variance of the obtained statistics should not exceed the variance of the original sample. It is inferred that the method of step-by-step smoothing method can be proposed for short-term forecasting

Some problems of transition to post-industrial development in the Siberian region Irkutsk Oblast of the Russian Federation is usually regarded as an industrial region. Its economy is oriented predominantly at extracting industries (coal, gas, iron ore, gold, salt, mica, timber cutting, hydropower) and first stages of processing (including petrochemicals and aluminium using imported raw materials). The principle proprietors (earlier sectoral ministries, now trans-national corporations) have their headquarters very far from Siberia and their interests are rather alien to the region. In fact, such a picture makes even the given definition ("industrial region") somehow doubtful and too optimistic. However, it can be said that we deal here with an early stage of industrialization, far from post-industrial development. Still, all this does not mean that such functions as science, education, or culture do not exist here. They do exist but are not used as "locomotives" of regional economy. In the last several years, the authors of the report have taken part in investigations and discussions on strategic planning of regional development in Irkutsk Oblast for the first half of the 21 st century. Three scenarios were analyzed in details. One of them, the conservative one, is based on the existing trends of development. It means that further development of the region will be resource oriented (power, aluminum, timber, etc.) as it has been for decades and even for centuries. This scenario is the least efficient and promising but it requires minimum efforts from the regional administration. The second scenario is called "New Industrialization". It includes restructuring the regional industry through extending natural resources processing. That is, producing aluminum alloys and products instead of raw aluminum, or plywood and furniture instead of timber. This variant is the most balanced but at the same time rather risky from the environmental point of view. The third scenario is based on the idea of transition to post-industrial economics. It means the leading role of services in the development of the regional economy. In this variant, the role of the intellectual activity grows immensely. While modern industrial technologies in today's world come usually from remote global centres, in the sphere of services it is impossible. For example, the development of the most promising tourist sector requires taking into account the unique specificity of the local system of the geographic position, climate,